Toronto at Miami
Time: 7 PM CT (NBA LP)
Spread: MIA -5
Total: 201.5
Betting odds c/o 5dimes
Against all odds, the “rebuilding” Miami Heat are surging towards the No. 8 spot in the Eastern Conference. Miami has won 7 of its past 10 SU and improved to 31-44, trailing No. 8 Milwaukee by just one-half game with 17 games (including tonight’s) remaining in the 2016-17 regular season.
The Heat will host the Toronto Raptors at home as 5-point favorites. The Heat have posted a 17-14 mark at home this season.
Miami has won its past three games with back-to-back victories over the struggling Cleveland Cavaliers and a 108-101 victory over Charlotte last time out. In the win over the Hornets, the Heat got 24 points from shooting guard Dion Waiters on 8 of 16 shooting, while outpacing Charlotte 27-15 in the fourth quarter to notch the come-from-behind victory.
The Heat maintained a +7 advantage on the glass in the game while shooting 43.5 percent from the field. Goran Dragic and Hassan Whiteside both posted double-doubles, as Tragic had 22 points and 10 assists and Whiteside was good for 10 points and 15 rebounds. Dragic also posted a team-best +20 differential for his 34 minutes on the court.
Dragic has quietly been having a stellar season. The veteran guard is averaging 20.2 points, 6.1 assists and 3.9 rebounds while posting a PER of 20.0. Whiteside has been equally as brilliant with per game averages of 16.5 points and 14.1 rebounds to go along with 2.07 blocks per contest. The Heat may be rebuilding, but there is enough talent on this roster to be a formidable 8-seed, or at least as good as Milwaukee and the other bottom-feeder postseason clubs.
Free agent acquisition Dion Waiters has had plenty to do with it. The former Oklahoma City Thunder guard is averaging 16 points per game, and no one really knew what to expect from the sometimes volatile youngster. Mixing in some underrated depth has left Miami in a good place, with Tyler Johnson and James Johnson both providing nice boosts off the bench.
While Miami may be devoid of true superstars, it has a host of talent, and when Justise Winslow comes back that will only upgrade the player rotation. While Winslow has been something of a disappointment offensively thus far in his career, he is unquestionably Miami’s best wing defender and will be counted upon heavily in a first round showdown with LeBron James and the Cavaliers.
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Toronto, meanwhile, is free-falling in the East. The Raptors lost Kyle Lowry for what appeared to be the season (but may not be), which has put the onus on DeMar DeRozan to simply do everything. The Raptors have still won six of its past 10 games overall, but are now seeded No. 4 in the East, behind both the Boston Celtics and Washington Wizards. A first round draw today would pit the Raptors against the similarly-talented Atlanta Hawks.
Toronto would have the homecourt advantage as of today, maintaining a 2-game lead over the No. 5 Hawks. Given the Raptors disparity between homecourt and road successes, this could be vital. Toronto is 21-11 at home this season but a much more beatable 17-16 on the road.
The Raptors, though, have lost 3 of its past 5, with losses to Milwaukee, Washington—and Atlanta, last time out. Toronto did add veteran forward Serge Ibaka at the trade deadline, as well as adding wing P.J. Tucker. Ibaka has fit in seamlessly in Toronto, averaging 16.6 points, 6.9 rebounds and 1.75 blocks in his first eight games (all starts) as a Raptor. Tucker has been a nice addition too, despite humble averages of seven points and five rebounds in 26 minutes a night.
The Raptors lost Terrence Ross to acquire Ibaka, but the hole at the 4-spot apparently was more troublesome than the loss in bench shooting that Ross represented. While losing Lowry certainly puts Toronto’s backs against the proverbial wall, Cory Joseph is one of the better reserve point guards in the league.
DeRozan has the talent to usurp some of Lowry’s 22.8 points per game. Toronto is hardly a team to be heavily feared after losing Lowry, which leaves Miami the favorite as it surges up the Eastern Conference Standings in pursuit of a postseason berth.
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