New Orleans at Utah
Time: 8 PM CT (NBA LP)
Spread: UTA -7
Total: 198.5
Betting odds c/o 5dimes
The New Orleans Pelicans got the first win of the “Boogie-Brow” era (with both superstars suited up) as it defeated the L.A. Lakers 105-97 last night. Both DeMarcus Cousins and Anthony Davis turned in huge games, and the Pelicans were in command of the game most of the way. Now, the pair looks to build on this win in traveling to face the Utah Jazz as 7-point underdogs.
New Orleans has lost four of its past six games overall, and this game is sure to be a grinding affair with a low over/under of 198.5 points. This game may be preferable to New Orleans’ pace and team construction.
What makes this matchup compelling for the Pelicans is that Utah will not seek to push the pace against New Orleans’ “Twin Towers” lineup. To be certain, Cousins and Davis both have transition talents and can thrive in up-pace games, but this will provide an opportunity to see if the Pelicans might not be better suited to play a low-possession game like the Utah Jazz do every night. Utah averages just 100.5 points per game, but the Jazz hold opponents to only 96.2 points, which is the league’s best mark. Given that the Jazz have defensive stalwart and Defensive Player of the Year candidate Rudy Gobert manning the 5-spot, this approach to the game only makes sense.
But who will Gobert draw in the matchup against New Orleans? Either Davis or Cousins has the ability to put Utah’s defensive star in foul trouble. To be sure, this is a matchup that could bring some of Utah’s lesser used bigs out of hiding. Derrick Favors is seeing just 24 minutes a game this year, but that easily could approach 30 tonight. Trey Lyles, too, has seen just 18 minutes per game and four starts this year, but against a big team like the Pelicans, Lyles may see some extra time. Overall, this game will be a lot different than the typical NBA game of this era, because it will be so interior-focused.
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Gordon Hayward is Utah’s premier offensive weapon, but he is a free agent this offseason. Hayward is averaging 22.1 points, 5.5 rebounds and 3.5 assists while posting a team-high PER Of 22.7. Accenting him has been the strong play of George Hill—when healthy. Hill has appeared in just 38 games this year, but he has averaged 17.6 points and 4.3 assists per game while posting a PER of 20.2 Gobert is the other Jazz member with a PER over 20 at 22.0, and his 13 points and 12.8 rebounds per game hardly tell the story of his overall massive impact.
The Jazz are not deficient in depth either, with veteran Joe Johnson and sharpshooter Joe Ingles being key pieces off the bench. The jury is still out on Dante Exum, but he has certainly shown some flashes even if he has started just 17 of his 48 games this season. The Jazz will continue to tinker, as the team that never had to rebuild (in the wake of losing Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap).
New Orleans meanwhile is building towards trying to keep Cousins in the Big Easy. He is a free agent in the summer of 2018, and the Pelicans have to add the right pieces to ensure that the Twin Tower lineup gets adequate court spacing. Outside of point guard Jrue Holiday, there just is not much talent on the roster, and the only certainty is that E’Twaun Moore and Solomon Hill will likely not be featured players when the team improves.
The rotation has to tighten up, and getting more from Tim Frazier off the bench may be one key source for that to happen. Overall, though, losing Buddy Hield and Langston Galloway’s shooting crippled the offense. Newly-acquired swingman Omri Casspi sustaining a season-ending injury in his Pelicans’ audition did little to further that cause.
Before the Pelicans will be taken very seriously, it will have to add the shooting and wing defenders necessary to fill out the roster around Cousins and Davis.
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