Tip off: 8:35 PM EST
Spread: DAL -8.5
Total: 193
M/L: DAL -420, TOR +350
Toronto has begun the season 1-1, and it seems fitting enough. They were able to squeak by the Cavs with an 8 point win, but fell to the improved Indiana Pacers. Tonight should be interesting, as though many have expected Dallas to contend as repeating champs, they have struggled out of the gate and are 0-3. They nearly beat Conference rival Oklahoma City, behind the 29 points of Dirk Nowitzki, but Durant’s 30 and buzzer beating shot propelled the Thunder over the Mavs.
With Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant possibly fueding, the only thing that can help the Thunder is winning games. If things go well enough, people set their differences aside. Durant did nothing but rave about how much he liked Westbrook when questioned on the matter on NBA TV, but who would expect anything different?
Toronto Betting Trends:
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of the Raptors’ last 7 games and they are 3-12 SU in their last 15 games. The Raptros are 2-22 SU in their last 24 road games and are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 against the Dallas Mavericks. They are 3-12 SU in their last 15 against Dallas and the total has gone OVER in 6 of their last 7 on the road against the Mavs. The Raptors are 1-10 SU in their last 11 road games against the Mavericks.
Dallas Betting Trends:
Dallas is 17-6-2 ATS in their last 25 games. The total has gone OVER in 5 of the Mavs last 5 games and they are 14-6 SU in their last 20 games. The Mavs are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games at home and the total has gone OVER In 7 fo the Mavs’ last 10 home games. The Mavs are 12-4 SU in their last 16 at home and 12-3 SU in their last 15 against Toronto, while the Mavs are 10-1 SU in their last 11 home games against Toronto. The total has gone OVER in 6 of the Mavs’ last 7 games at home against the Raptors, as well.
Key Matchups:
Backcourt play,
Jarryd Bayless / Jose Calderon / Leandro Barbosa / DeMar DeRozan vs. Jason Kidd / Delonte West / Jason Terry / Vince Carter
Most of the talent on these teams is actually concentrated in the backcourt, despite the Mavs focus on forward Dirk Nowitzki. DeMar DeRozan of the Raptors is quickly establishing himself as one of the best young scorers in the game, and has been asked to do more defensively. Realistically, DeRozan could be an All Star at some point in his career, because his athleticism dictates his very high ceiling.
Barbosa has been a scorer his entire career, and that hasn’t changed, but Jose Calderon has returned to his vintage dishing days and is averaging 8.5 assists per game through the Raptors first two games. Vince Carter only saw 16 minutes last game, and along with Jason Kidd is getting pretty long in the tooth. Look for Delonte West to shoulder a lot of the ball handling duties, while Terry will launch his usual array of jumpers. Nothing is new in Dallas, except for the fact they are no where near as good this season.
If you feel like this analysis has given you some insight as a bettor, you may feel inclined to back up a bet at Bookmaker, where they offer a 5% return on lost bets. Also check out our paid pick packages for the 2011-2012 season, as we murder the books once again!
