Portland Trailblazers AT Minnesota Timberwolves
January 7th, 2011 at 8:00 PM EST
Opening Line: Porltand -3
Current Line: Portland -2.5
Opening Total: 200
Current Total: 199
Opening Moneyline: Portland -155 / Minnesota +135
Current Moneyline: Portland -145 / Minnesota +125
Portland has been playing well recently, despite the absense of all-star shooting guard Brandon Roy, whose career is in serious peril after learning he has no meniscus in either knee. As winners of 7 of their last 10, the Blazers come into Minnesota tonight to take on one of the four worst teams in the league in the Minnesota Timberwolves, who have won just 9 of 36 games this year. They are only 2 games below .500 at home despite their .250 win percentage and Portland is a bad road team at 7-14, so it’s within reason that the underdog Wolves win tonight’s matchup and is indicated by NBA oddsmakers setting the opening line at only 3 points in Portland’s favor.
Minnesota does a good job of scoring, the problem is that they do the worst job in the league at defending, giving up an astounding and absurd 108.6 points per game, rendering them with a -5.8 point differential. The Blazers, as one would expect from a near .500 team have a differential near zero of +0.4. Despite being horrible in nearly everything, the Timberwolves are oddly the best rebounding team in the league at 45.0 rebounds per game. It’s due largely in part to the fact that they have the league’s leading rebounder in Kevin Love, who is a good margin ahead of Dwight Howard for the top spot and had a 30-30 game earlier this year, for the first time in over 30 years in the NBA.
Some betting trends:
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Portland’s last 6 games and they have won 7 of their last 10. They are 3-10, however, in their past 13 on the road and 5-9-1 ATS in their last 15 road games. They have won their last 5 against the Wolves and the total has gone OVER in 4 of their last 5 against Minnesota, as well. They have also won the last 5 meetings in Minnesota.
Minnesota is 5-18 over their past 23 games and 8-17 over their last 25 at home. The total has gone OVER in 5 of their last 6 at home and has gone OVER in 4 of their last 5 against the Blazers. They are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against Portland, as well.
Premier Matchup of the game:
LaMarcus Aldridge vs Kevin Love
This matchup at power forward pits the best player of each team against one another. Aldridge has stepped up beautifully in the absense of Roy, and the Blazers have been decent in that stretch of time. Love is emerging as a true superstar on a horrible Timberwolves team and his contract expires at the end of this year, and he made it clear he is no lock to resign with the Wolves; he wants to win. Teams will definitely have to pay for the services of the versatile big man who is averaging 21.0 points per game and 15.6 rebounds, including 4.8 offensive rebounds a game. Moreover, he’s shooting 43.2% from three, an added bonus from a big man. Aldridge is a good scorer, but has absolutely no chance of keeping Love from having a big rebound game. If Love can have another monster game, the Wolves could have a decent shot at covering the spread.
