Orlando Magic AT Denver Nuggets
December 14th, 2010 at 9:00 EST
Opening Point Spread: Denver -1
Current Point Spread: Denver -1
Opening Total: 204
Current Total: 206
Opening Moneyline: Orlando -102 / Denver -118
Current Moneyilne: Orlando +100 / Denver -110
Orlando enters tonight’s game against Denver seriously struggling. Prior to last Sunday night’s win against the Clippers, the Magic had lost four straight, and even in their win in L.A., they blew a huge lead and hung on by the skin of their teeth for a 9 point win. Denver, too, is struggling, as they have dropped three of their last four, the last being a 4 point loss in a shootout against the Knicks. Despite the poor play recently for the Nuggets, they were on the road, but now return the the Pepsi Center to face the Magic, where they are 10-1, their only loss having come to Dallas on November 3rd.
Both teams have positive point differentials, with the Magic having a +5.1, as they give up a mere 91.9 per game and score 97 a game. Denver, meanwhile, has a +1.8 differential, scoring 106.7 and giving up 104.9 in high paced exciting games. Tonight’s game will feature the dichotomy of Orlando’s slow paced game (they are last in the league in fast break points) against Denver’s quick paced transition scoring game.
For NBA Picks ATS, the Magic are 3-9 ATS on the road this year and 8-15-1 ATS overall. Denver is 3-7-1 ATS at home and 7-14-2 ATS overall. The teams have split their last 10 matchups, with Orlando winning the last of them by 6 points in a game on March 28th 2010. The total for that game was 200, with the final score of 103 to 97.
Ryan Anderson is still sidelined with the ankle injury he suffered and Duhon is day to day with a sore lower back. Denver is without the services of Chris “Birdman” Andersen and Kenyon Martin.
Some of the key matchups for tonight’s game
Jameer Nelson vs Chauncey Billups
Jameer Nelson has a history of struggling against the bigger, stronger point guards, of which the 6’3″ 202 lb Billups is one. Last game against the Magic Billups went for 18 points, 5 assists, and 5 rebounds, and his career average against Orlando is 15.8 ppg, 5.7 apg, and 3.0 rpg. Jameer also had a strong game, however, last time against Denver, matching Billups’ scoring output with 15 of his own and also recording 4 assists and 3 rebounds. Billups may look to back Nelson down some into the post area where he will then draw double teams, allowing open shots for Affalo and Carmelo Anthony. Without the services of Duhon, backup Jason Williams will also have problems with Billups if he is not facing Denver backup Ty Lawson…
Nenê vs Dwight Howard
Denver recently decided to utilize Nenê more in the post, and saught to get him more touches. It has paid off as Nenê has averaged 20.6 points per game in the past five games, including 26 point nights in each of the past two. He’ll test his confidence and game against the leagues 2 time reigning defensive player of the year Dwight Howard. In the past, Nenê has not had much success with Howard, averaging but 10 points a game against the Magic (well below his season averages over the past three years of roughly 14 a game) and last game against the Magic, he has 13. Dwight, though, has had his problems with the Nuggets, one of the few teams that has the size to matchup with him, though half their frontline is hurt in tonight’s contest. Howard is averaging 25 points per game on this Western Conference road trip over the last three games.
Look for Denver to try to establish a fast pace to the game early on as it is to their advantage to seek to out run the Magic. Often teams have trouble with their winds early on when playing in the “Mile High City” so the Magic may struggle out of the gate in this one and end up having to play from behind.
