Philadelphia 76ers AT Orlando Magic
January 19th, 2011 at 7:00 PM EST
Opening Line: Orlando -10
Current Line: Orlando -9.5
Opening Total: 199
Current Total: 200
Opening Moneyline: Orl -465 / Phi +385
Current Moneyline: Orl -550 / Phi +375
Last time the Magic faced the Sixers, the Sixers won by 8, but that night was the night after the blockbuster trades that Orlando made, and the Magic dressed the NBA minimum number of players for that game. It didn’t matter to ever pessimist Stan Van Gundy. “Make every excuse in the world,” Van Gundy said following the game. “That’s five straight games where we’ve done nothing to defend in the second half. So whatever the excuses are. I’m running out of them. I don’t believe in any of them. Go out and guard somebody.”
Be that as it may, the Magic have continued to struggle defensively and have now dropped three of their last five. J.J. Redick said it’s because of an inability to get key stops. “We couldn’t get enough stops down the stretch and that was probably the theme of this trip,” J.J. Redick told the team’s official website. “All three games that we lost were close games and it came down to us not being able to get stops at crucial times. We have to play better against the (better) teams and bring our defensive energy.”
One thing that bettors may be interested to know is that Philadelphia has never won both road games in Orlando in the Magic’s franchise history, so they have history working against them tonight.
Some betting trends:
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philly’s last 6 games and they are 4-2 SU in those games. They are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games and 1-4 SU in their last 5 road games. The total has gone OVER In 4 of Philly’s last 5 on the road and they are 1-7 SU in their last 8 against the Magic. They are also 1-6 ATS in their last 7 against Orlando and 1-4 SU in their last 5 road games against the Magic. They are also 3-6 ATS in their last 9 road games against the Magic.
Orlando is 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games and 10-3 SU in their last 13 games. The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the Magic’s last 5 home games and they are 5-0 SU in their last 5 home games. Orlando is 7-1 SU in their last 8 games against the Sixers. The total has gone OVER in 5 of their last 6 against Philly and they are 4-1 SU in their last 5 against the Sixers.
Key matchups:
Jrue Holiday vs Jameer Nelson & Gilbert Arenas
Holiday is one of the franchise cornerstones of the 76ers and he has shown why this season. Averaging 14.6 points per game on the year and 6.6 assist per game, he had a horrible game against the Magic last time, scoring only 5 points on 2 of 7 shooting and recording 5 assists. While he is significantly taller than the supposedly 6’0″ Nelson (Holiday is 6’4″), he will have his match size-wise against Arenas, but will have instead a speed advantage against Arenas. Either way, Holiday should have a much better game tonight, as his career average against the Magic is more than double what he produced last meeting (10.5 ppg and 5.3 apg career vs the Magic). Nelson’s defense has improved lately and he will have a true litmus test tonight against Holiday. Nelson is averaging a career hgih 6.7 assists per game this year, a full assist better than his previous best. He’s not quite playing on the level that he was during his all star campaign of 08-09, but his play has been sufficient for the Magic to have won 10 of their last 13.
Andre Iguodala vs Hedo Turkoglu
Iguodala should be able to apply significant pressure on Turkoglu tonight and possibly force the ball out of his hands some, leaving Nelson to initiate the half court offense. Hedo has been playing the role of a point forward for the Magic and recently recorded his career high game in assists with 17 in a win over Dallas. His scoring has been erratic and inconsistent, and he has scored under 13 in his past 8 games. It won’t get any easier against Iguodala, who frequently gives the very best small forwards problems.
Orlando may be favored tonight but Philly is a good bet to cover the spread. Other than at the center spot, they matchup very favorably against the Magic and if they can do anything close to containing Howard, it will be a good game.
