Detroit Pistons AT Orlando Magic
January 24, 2011 at 7 PM EST
Opening Line:  Orlando -12
Current Line: Orlando -12
Opening Total: 193.5
Current Total: 192.5
Opening Moneyline:  Orl -1100 / Det +750
Current Moneyline: Orl -1200 / Det +800

Last game aganist the Pistons, the Magic didn’t have Dwight Howard…or Jameer Nelson…or J.J. Redick, and they shot 59.7 percent from the floor and won by 13.  Imagine now with the improved roster and the addition of those players who were out with the flu will affect the outcome of the game.

Hedo Turkoglu has bought back into Orlando’s philosophy seemlessly.   He knows the Magic have a lot of different ways they can hurt teams, and even beat very good ones.  “We have a lot of offensive guys who can do a lot of good stuff,” Hedo Turkoglu said following scoring his season high. “When we move the ball inside out and play unselfishly, we’re really hard to guard.”

Rick Adelman, coach of the Rockets, said “Against a team like (the Magic), you’ve got to keep your concentration.  If they burn you once, you’ve got to try to make sure it doesn’t happen again…they pretty much toyed with us after they got a 20-point lead.”  It will be an interesting homecoming for Tracy McGrady, who is now a mediocre over the hill guard.  He’s had his heyday, but he fell off quicker than most ever do, due to his aching and spasming back.

Some betting trends:

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit’s past 6 games and they are 4-2 SU in those games.  The total has gone UNDER In 5 of their last 5 on the road and they are 2-15 SU in their last 17 on the road.   Detroit is 17-8 SU in their last 25 games against the Magic.  Detroit is 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games against the Magic.  They are 0-5 SU in their last 5 games against the Magic.  The total has gone OVER In 6 of Detroit’s last 9 road meetings against the Magic.  Detroit is 2-5 SU in their last 7 road games against the Magic.

Orlando is 13-3 SU in their last 16 games and 11-4-1 ATS in those games.  The total has gone UNDER in 5 of their last 5 at home and they are 5-0 SU in their last 5 at home.  They are also 5-0 SU in their last 5 against the Pistons.  They are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 against Detroti and 8-17 SU in their last 25 against the Pistons.  Orlando is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games against the Detroit Pistons.

Key Matchups:

Rodney Stuckey vs. Jameer Nelson

Both these guards fall into a tier just under the elite point guards of the league, as second tiermen that are effective, but by no means really dominant.  Nelson has had some good games this year, but missed the last meeting between the teams due to the aforementioned illness that ran its way through the Magic’s team.  Stuckey is a different player than Nelson; larger, more physical, and more aggressive offensively.  Nelson is better in the pick and roll game than Stuckey, and Stuckey will have a lot of trouble deciding to go either under or over on pick and rolls.

Ben Wallace vs. Dwight Howard

Ben Wallace was one of two of the Pistons’ five starters to have come through Orlando (the other was Chauncey Billups).  He had a very good year for the Magic that year and I think they were a winning team in the games he started (by a good margin if I recall correctly).  He went on to become a perennial defensive player of the year.  Dwight Howard has won two back to back DPOYs and could win his 3rd this year.  He’s not the defensive force that Wallace was, but he is very very good.  Wallace took over games with his defense.  Dwight is doing that sometimes, but not on a game per game basis as Big Ben did.

Tonight’s game might be closer than the spread.  The Pistons have always had a way of hurting the Magic and they still have Hamilton/Tayshaun/Ben Wallace.