NBA Division Previews: Atlantic Division

 

The Atlantic Division produced three playoff teams last year, but none advanced past the first round, nor were any of its squads ever considered true contenders. The Toronto Raptors started the year on fire, but quickly fizzled as the season wore on.

Jonas Valanciunas-raptors-2015

The Raps had a potent lineup led by an All-Star point guard in Kyle Lowry, but its depth and balance were not enough to find its way to sustained postseason success, falling eventually to Paul Pierce and the Washington Wizards. With Pierce now in L.A., the Wiz will seek to get more still out of one of the league’s best points in John Wall and a supremely gifted 2-guard Bradley Beal.

The Boston Celtics were in some respects one of the most surprise teams in the East, but those with faith in Brad Stevens may have seen it coming. Even in a season which featured the Celtics without long-time point guard Rajon Rondo, Stevens was able to get the most of late-season acquisition Isaiah Thomas, who forms part of a strong defensive backcourt with Avery Bradley and Marcus Smart. The C’s could be a backcourt nightmare for a number of teams, and on the inside Kelly Olynyk and Jared Sullinger are both evolving into quality NBA players.

The Nets are somewhat in disarray without a real strong hope for the future, having leased its prospects to Boston to acquire Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce. Joe Johnson is in his waning seasons and Brook Lopez is still a dominant scorer, so the team cannot be counted entirely out of relevancy quite yet. The 76ers and Knicks are both likely years away from being anything like a contender.

Toronto Raptors (49-33)
Championship Odds: +5000
Predicted W/L: 45-37

The Toronto Raptors really had a best case scenario last season, and knocked on the door of 50 wins. Can that happen again? Maybe. But not if Toronto is the team it was in the late part of last season and postseason of the 2015 campaign.

The Raptors clearly have great pieces in Kyle Lowry, DeMar Derozan, Terrence Ross, Jonas Valanciunas and DeMarre Carroll. None of those guys are exactly who you want to isolate in late game situations. Lowry can create, and DeRozan is capable of getting to the line, but how can that stack up with a team shooting a true closer down the heart of the Raps? Which of those guys can you trust with the game on the line?

Due to the lack of star power and underwhelming depth, it is difficult to peg the Raptors as much more than first round fodder for a stronger club. 45 wins would certainly make the playoffs, but if the Wizards could thoroughly dispose of the Raptors, at least three to five more clubs could easily do the same.

Carroll was a nice addition, but Patrick Patterson and Luis Scola are both nominal starters at the 4-spot. Patterson has nice shooting range and Scola is durable and reliable, but neither is going to really stick it to a tough power forward. The Raptors have Bismack Biyombo backing up Jonas V. now, and he is a big body and brings some more strength, if not six more fouls, to the court.

Ultimately, this seems like a team that goes as far as Lowry can carry it. He’s not given his due in many league circles, but in the 2010-11 season, he was arguably the league’s best floor general up until the All-Star break. He still has that talent, and maybe those who expect the most from the Raptors also expect the most from Lowry.

Avery Bradley-celtics-2013Boston Celtics (40-42)
Championship Odds: +10000
W/L Prediction: 45-37

The Boston Celtics are quietly becoming the team no one wants to draw in the postseason. Brad Stevens knows how to lead his team to be defensive pests, and he has the personnel to do it. Marcus Smart and Avery Bradley are both absolute ball hawks. Isaiah Thomas brings instant offense off the bench.

Tough energy man Jae Crowder starts next to David Lee at power forward, who could by all means have a revelation and go back to All-Star status. Jared Sullinger has a looked nice in stretches, but the addition of Amir Johnson should pay big dividends. He really started to develop nicely in Toronto and has become one of the better defenders at the 4/5 spot without a lot of fanfare.

Kelly Olynyk is a floor stretching 5, backed up by a long legged and good finishing Tyler Zeller. The Celtics have the pieces in place to be a really tough team, and could eventually be a 50-win club. This year? Not likely, but Smart is just scratching the surface and Thomas could become the league’s best sixth man in time.

joe johnson-nets-2013Brooklyn Nets (38-44)
Championship Odds: +20000

Predicted W/L:  34-48

The Brooklyn Nets are really just hanging by a thread to a team that was expected to be far more and just never was. Its future is virtually leased to the Boston Celtics, its payroll run up on underachievers. But Brooklyn is not a horrible basketball team, even all those negatives fully exposed.

One could start with the fact the Nets have a very potent starting lineup. Jarrett Jack and Shane Larkin are a great 1-2 combo at the point guard spot. Began Bogdanovvic and Wayne Ellington can shoot the rock at the 2-spot, while Joe Johnson puts another ball handler and capable scorer on the other wing. Down low is stretch-4 Thaddeus Young and center Brook Lopez, who has shown signs of being more aggressive, and better, in recent times.

The Nets even have depth in the form of Thomas Robinson, Willie Reed and Andrea Bargnani. Reed was one of the best talents in the Orlando Summer League and brings a lot of length and strength to the court. Robinson still has yet to play to his No. 5 overall selection, but he can finish well and should be an energy spark off the bench. Bargnani, bust or not, can still be a court stretcher from the 5-spot, a talent that is not easy to find.

Philadelphia 76ers (18-64)
Championship Odds: +25000

Predicted W/L:  22-60

The Philadelphia 76ers are still trying to overcome a team that is in windup for something far greater. It parted ways with 2014 Rookie of the Year Michael Carter Williams, which hardly even makes sense. Instead the team will turn to Kendall Marshall and Nik Stauskas as its starting backcourt. Robert Covington is a nice prospect at the 3. The teams lynchpins are power forward Nerlens Noel and potential Rookie of the Year Jahlil Okafor. Eventually, Joel Embiid will be added to the mix, to give the 76ers one of the most loaded frontcourts in the Association. What trades that may enable are tantalizing to think about.

That is how the vision is sold, anyway. Noel is one of the top-three talents from the 2013 draft class, and Okafor is billed as a can’t miss, franchise center. He is a better offensive player than No. 1 overall pick Karl Anthony Towns, but his ceiling may be just slightly lower. Okafor isn’t going to flash and dazzle, but he will draw double teams and wisely pass out of them. He will pick and choose his spots as he transitions from Duke to the NBA. Coach Mike Kryzewski has produced precious few duds. Okafor seemed to have more defensively than Coach K asked of him, but that really is little more than speculation. He will be given his best chance at success as a day 1 starter.

The 76ers are moving away from being a D-League powerhouse. Carl Landry is a good scorer from the 4-spot, and JaKarr Sampson and Jerami Grant are both intriguing swingmen as well. It is not as though this team is utterly devoid of depth. It is that all the best talents on it are young prospects. There is not enough veteran leadership and Landry can’t do all of that as the lone elder statesmen. The 76ers next move towards contention could be adding a veteran point guard who can bring stability to a talented mix of players. Tony Wroten is not bad, but there are better options by spending a few bucks to get them in The City of Brotherly Love.

Carmelo-Anthony-knicks-7New York Knicks (17-65)
Championship Odds: +20000
Predicted W/L: 22-60

The New York Knicks really will not be much better. It added Kristaps Porzingis in the draft, but at this point he has to add a lot of weight before he can be a real force at power forward. The skill set is impressive, as his innate scoring ability and shooting touch. But it all has to be tempered, because he has yet to do any of it in an actual NBA game.

Porzingis could end up being the perfect 4-man for the triangle offense, but he has to buy into it…and, understand it. His english is seemingly good, but Phil Jackson’s system developed by Tex Winters is not easy to grasp, potentially even more difficult for European talents.

Carmelo Anthony may go down as another great one who never won a ring. He kept his loyalties in New York, and it hardly has been rewarded. He battled injury and an underachieving cast of teammates to just 17 wins a season ago. The Knicks did make some wise moves in building its backcourt with the ultra talented Jose Calderon and a hot shooting Arron Afflalo.

Robin Lopez was a nice signing for the 5-spot as he has proven to be one of the best post defenders in the entire league. Kevin Seraphin came at a bargain, as he produces above replacement-level for a forward as well.

Another interesting piece is former Orlando Magic big man Kyle O’Quinn, who should immediately dazzle with one of the better high post passing games of young players. O’Quinn plays hard but will need only to curb his issues with fouls. Derrick Williams will start at the 4, but it is likely Porzingis usurps the role before the All-Star break.

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