Minnesota Timberwolves AT Phoenix Suns
December 15th, 2010 at 9:05 PM EST
Opening Point Spread:  Phoenix -9.5
Current Point Spread: Phoenix -9.5
Opening Total:  222
Current Total: 223
Moneyline: Phoenix -578 / Minnesota +472

Both teams enter tonight’s game cold.  The Wolves have lost back to back games and won but 2 of their past 10 games and Phoenix is riding a 3 game losing streak, as well, which has carried them out of the playoff picture and dropped their record below .500, at 11-12.  Minnesota, as expected, has been horrible, going 6-19 so far, despite the strong play of their promising young front line of Beasley, Kevin Love, and Darko Milicic (that’s right, Darko.  Check the stats, he’s actually having a good season!).

The Suns haven’t had a three game losing streak at home since January of 2009, but are in danger of dropping their third straight at home tonight.  Minnesota gives them a great shot at avoiding this, though, since the Wolves are a disgusting 1-13 on the road this season.

Minnesota is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in Phoenix and Phoenix is 2-6 ATS in their last 6 home games.  The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Phoenix’s last 6 games, and despite their recent struggles have still won 18 of their past 25 home games, including 7 of the past 8 at home against Minnesota.

Minnesota has a terrible point differential of -7.4, scoring a respectable 101.6 points per game, but giving up an astounding 109.1, the second most points given up per game of any team in the league.  Phoenix, as you would expect given their near .500 record, has a -1.4 point differential in their high paced game, scoring 108.1 points per game and giving up 109.5 (that’s right, they’re the one team giving up more than Minnesota).  Given these teams’ horrible defense, NBA oddsmakers have set the total high at 222.

Key Matchups for tonight’s game:

Michael Beasley vs. Grant Hill

Beasley has emerged from the hallows of hell to have a great season this year.  Despite being called a pot head and a bust, he has averaged 21.2 points per game, 6.6 points more per game than last season.  His field goal percentage of 47.2 matches his career high set in his rookie season and he is shooting the three well, too, at 38%.  He has struggled a little of late, averaging only 15.6 over his past three games, but Phoenix is the kind of team that players break out of slumps against given their poor defense.  The problem here is that Phoenix’s only good defender (outside of the injured Robin Lopez), Grant Hill, will be matched against Beasley.  Hill, despite having more metal than bone in his ankle, is still fast and able to stay in front of most defenders.  Beasley will have to post up more and use his length against Hill.

Luke Ridnour vs. Steve Nash

Okay, so this is one more predicated upon Nash’s abilty than Ridnour’s.  Can Ridnour keep Nash in check?  Probably not.  Nash is the key to Phoenix’s offense and he has been the sole reason that they have been able to remain competitive over the recent years.  Ridnour, by comparison, is about as average as they come.  He scores 10 and dishes out 5, seeing near 30 minutes a game.  Minnesota may start Johnny Flynn who they just called up from the D-league (he was rehabbing, he’s not a scrub).  If so, Flynn’s speed could help to slow Nash, but not by much.

Tonight’s game promises to be a shootout.  Both teams are horrible on defense and whichever team can actually manage to get some stops will win the game.