Tip off: 8:35 PM EST
Spread: DAL -8
Total: 195.5
M/L: DAL -375, PHX +315
The Suns and Steve Nash in particular got off to a rough start, but appear to be righting the ship. Monday night, they managed an 11 point win over the Golden State Warriors. Nash returned to form with 21 points on 9 of 13 shooting, while the Suns ahd four other players in double figures and shot 44.8% from the floor, which was a far worse percentage than the visiting Warriors, but the Suns got 15 more shots as a result of better rebounding (16 offensive boards) and few turnovers (only 6).
Things have gone rough for the Mavs. Just when things appeared to be getting better, they lost by 17 to a team like the Timberwolves. They came back the following night (Monday) to defeat the Thunder by 13, but the Mavs are going to have to get more from their aged cast to have any chance this year. Outside of Dirk Nowitzki and Jason Terry, the Mavs have no one else in double figures, and Jason Kidd is shooting 35.5% from the floor, while Odom is a ridiculous 19.5% from the floor. There are few who think the Mavs have any chance at repeating, and the 7.5:1 odds set forth by Bovada’s future betting no longer seems so untenable. In fact, it seems like a poor value given the way the Mavs have started.
Phoenix Suns Betting Trends:
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the Suns’ last 6 games and it has gone UNDER in 4 of their last 6 on the road. The Suns are 2-7 SU in their last 9 on the road and they are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 against the Mavs. The Total has gone UNDER in 4 of their last 5 against Dallas, and they are 0-5 SU in their last 5 against Dallas. The Suns are 0-5 SU in their last 5 road games against Dallas, too, while the Suns are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games on the road against the Mavs. The total has gone UNDER In 4 of the Suns’ last 5 games on the road against Dallas.
Dallas Mavs Betting Trends:
The Mavs are 16-7-1 ATS in their last 24 games and the Mavs are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games. The Mavs are 16-7 SU in their last 23 gamse and are 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 at home. The Mavs are 14-4 SU in their last 18 home games and 3-5-1 ATS in their last 9 at home. The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the last 5 against Phoenix and the Mavs are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games against the Suns. The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the Mavs’ last 5 games at home vs Phx and the Mavs are 5-0 SU in their last 5 home games against Phoenix.
Key Matchup:
Channing Frye / Hakim Warrick / Markieff Morris vs. Dirk Nowitzki
I’ve tried to include the players I think the Suns are likely to throw at Nowitzki. Morris may have the chance at doing the best job, but he is also still just a rookie. Like most teams, Phoenix has no one solid to matchup against Dirk, but beyond Nowitzki the Suns will experience no other matchup problems. Frye is off to a horrid start, Warrick is doing his usual points-only routine, and Morris is off to an impressive start, but the Suns are clearly greatly outmatched against a player like Nowitzki and they can only hope to stop the bleeding before the hemmoraging gets really bad.
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