Miami Heat AT Denver Nuggets
January 13th, 2011 at 10:30 PM EST
Opening Line:  Miami -4
Current Line:  Miami -1.5
Opening Total: 205.5
Current Total: 205
Opening Moneyline: Miami -120 / Denver +110
Current Moneyline: Miami -130 / Denver +110

Tonight could be one of Carmelo Anthony’s final games as a nugget, but whether it will be a showdown between he and draft class mate LeBron James remains to be seen.  Anthony, despite being a rental of sorts for the Nuggets at this point, seems amped to play the Heat.

“I’ll be here playing against Miami.  Guarantee you that,” said Anthony who has won his last 9 matchups against the Heat at home.  “I love all challenges, not just (James).  Any great player, I like that challenge of knowing I’ve got to man up against one of the greats in the game.”

LeBron spoke on his ankle injury, “There’s no damage, I got an X-ray after the game.  The doctor told me it’s day-to-day so I’ll see how I feel (Thursday). I don’t have to be a hero in the regular season if I’m not close to 100 percent.”

Miami is coming off a tough road loss to the lowly Clippers, who are probably the most exciting bad basketball team in a long time.  Miami still has only lost twice in the past twenty three games and remains atop the Eastern Conference standings.

Some betting trends:

Miami is 21-2 SU in their last 23 games and 13-1 SU in their past 14 road games.  The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami’s last 6 games playing in Denver.  Miami is 1-9 SU in their last 10 against the Nuggets and they are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 against Denver.  The total has gone OVER in 4 of their last 6 road games against the Nuggets and they are 0-5 SU in their last 5 in Denver.  They are also 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in Denver.

Denver is 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games and the total has gone UNDER in 4 of their last 6 games at home.  Denver is 15-3 SU in their last 18 home games and 5-9-2 ATS in their last 16 home games.

Key matchups:

LeBron James vs. Carmelo Anthony

This is not only the premier matchup of the game but it is one of the best showdowns in the league.  Both entered the league in 2003 and have since had a mixed bag of success.  LeBron has made a finals appearance and Carmelo has taken the Nuggets to the Western Conference finals, but neither has yet to win their first ring.  For his career against the Heat, Carmelo is averaging 26.2 points per game, slightly over 2 higher than his season average of 23.9.  His scoring average is down from last year’s 28.2, and part of that can be attributed to his heart not being fully in Denver.  But he is never one to back down from a challenge against the best players at his position, of which LeBron certainly is one.  LeBron’s numbers, too, are down across the board, but it’s doubtful he minds now that he feels he is playing with a legitimate contender.  Both players ordinarily have strength advantages against other small forwards, but will neutralize one another’s strengths tonight, and it will probably be mostly a perimeter battle since neither wants to take the other in the post in particular.

Dwyane Wade vs. Aaron Afflalo

Before you laugh me out of the gym on this one, bear with me.  Afflalo is one of Denver’s best defenders and is quietly putting together a nice season.  In 35 minutes a night he is scoring 12.6 points a game and grabbing 3.8 boards.  It’s paltry in comparision to Wade, but he should be able to give Wade some problems with his pesky defense.  Moreover, Afflalo is playing significantly better at home this season where he averages 14.1, a full point and a half higher than his season average.  Wade will look to take Affalo to the hole to get Kenyon Martin, Chris Andersen, and Nene Hilario into foul trouble, which will work to Miami’s advantage because their frontline is weaker and if they can get the Nuggets’ frontline into foul trouble then they could take advantage on the boards.

Tonight’s game should be a very good one, despite the Nuggets team being in disarray.  They came out sluggish and apathetic in the first quarter against the Suns last game, but proceeded to turn it on in a hurry in the second quarter and went on to win the game.  They won’t have that luxury against the Heat, so they better come out firing.