Houston at Phoenix
Time: 8 PM CST
Spread: PHO -2.5
Total: 220
Betting odds c/o Bovada
The Houston Rockets have cooled off, and there’s a good reason why: Signing Josh Smith seemed more important than winning basketball games. When Stan Van Gundy doesn’t want to and can’t deal with a guy, that says a lot, given what he put up with from Dwight Howard (probable, knee) and Orlando.
The Rockets and Smith’s obnoxious shot selection will travel to Phoenix to face the Suns in a game NBA oddsmakers are favoring the Suns by 2.5 points.
Wednesday night, the Rockets were blown out badly by the Golden State Warriors on the road, despite a game-high 33 points from James Harden (probable, knee). Kevin McHale has given Smith the green light to shoot threes, and eventually his teammates will get annoyed like fans already are. Smith is hitting 30 percent from behind the arc, and though it is just two attempts per game, he needs to put the ball down and head to the basket, because he also takes too many long twos.
Smith is shooting just 41.8 percent from the floor, and this is a 6’9” athlete who has won a dunk contest. There’s really no reason to be that poor with the gifts he has. Nonetheless, Smith will eventually likely relegate Donatas Motiejunas to the role of spot reserve, and the Rockets will be worse off for it. There’s also the issue of Terrence Jones, who is essentially a coachable version of Smith once he returns from injury.
There’s about a 1,000 reasons Smith should have never been signed, and only one why he should have. And that “one” is that Daryl Morey was itching to replace Jones, simply because he could. Chris Bosh would have been an upgrade, but this is just a change.
All of that said, James Harden and Dwight Howard are enough to keep this team competitive aside from what every other Rocket does. Yet, it doesn’t require perfect play from either. Both Patrick Beverley and Trevor Ariza have made Harden’s ride on defense a smoother one, by cutting off penetration and allowing James to focus on making plays. And he has.
Harden is averaging 2.79 blocks/steals per game, which helps ignite Rockets’ fast breaks and transition play. The former OKC Thunder Sixth man is posting a PER of 27.6 and averaging 27 points, 5.5 rebound and 6.7 assists per game. He’s an MVP candidate, and a very strong one at that.
Dwight Howard earned the praise from Hakeem Olajuwon prior to the season, as The Dream said that Howard had all the physical tools and motivation present to make this an MVP season. He hasn’t quite played to that level, but he has looked better than he did in Los Angeles. He’ll never be the “Orlando Dwight” that posted 20/20 games relentlessly, but he is still in the top-3 at his position. Howard is averaging 16.7 points, 11.2 rebounds and 2.1 blocks/steals per game.
Really, Howard should block more than 1.4 shots per game, but he has to stay out of foul trouble with no adequate big men behind him. Thus, he has focused more on changing shots than going block crazy. Sometimes statistics only tell the result, but not the why.
The improvement for Howard could come in the form of snagging a few more offensive boards. He’s only good for 2.9 per game, and there’s no reason he couldn’t increase that to close to four. Creating second shots is the greatest value both he and Jones (when healthy) bring.
The Phoenix Suns are 26-18 this season and sit 3rd in the Pacific Division. As it’s been the last three seasons, the Suns are having absolutely no trouble scoring the ball. Phoenix ranks 3rd in the NBA in points per game (107.5) but also allows the third most, 104.8. The result is a winning ball club, but it stands to reason the Suns won’t react well to playoff basketball with this roster.
The strength of the Suns is in its three-guard rotation. Goran Dragic, Eric Bledsoe and Isaiah Thomas are three of the Suns top-four scorers and the trio combines to average 48.7 points per game, with Goran leading the team at 17 points per game. GD will be heavily courted in free agency, and teams may come calling for both he and Eric Bledsoe at the trade deadline. The Suns can afford to lose either, given the acquisition of Thomas over the summer.
Market Morris has blossomed into one of the best stretch-4s in the league. Morris is averaging 15.3 points and 5.8 rebounds per game, while shooting 33 percent from three-point range on 2.5 attempts. The percentages aren’t outstanding, but he’s a young talent and plays extremely hard, which is what separates him from the likes of Smith as a power forward.
The Suns depth is also vital in keeping this team competitive. Gerald Green, Markieff’s twin Marcus, P.J. Tucker, Alex Len and Miles Plumlee are all important rotation players. Len’s development has been one of the brightest spots for the Suns. The former Maryland Terrapin is absolutely enormous and will be needed down the road to battle the bigger bodies in the NBA.
