Dallas Mavericks AT Indiana Pacers
January 12th, 2011 at 7 PM EST
Opening Line: Dallas -1
Current Line: Indiana -1.5
Opening Total: 190.5
Current Total: 192
Opening Moneyline: Dallas -105 / Ind -115
Current Moneyline: Dallas -105 / Ind -115
It’s funny how a team can win 17 of 18 games and then proceed to lose 5 of 7, but really the explanation need stem no further than the loss of a Mr. Dirk Nowitzki. For as much depth as the Mavericks have and as good as a team they are, removing a player that scores 25% of their points can easily cripple them. Tonight they’ll have as good a chance as any to right the ship against an Indiana team that is mediocre at best…but they’ll be trying to do it again without Dirk, and as you can see the line set by NBA oddsmakers in Dallas’ favor has since shifted to be in the Pacers’ favor.
What’s worse for the Mavs than the loss of Dirk Nowitzki for the present is the fact that their number three scorer in Caron Butler is likely out for the season. It puts an ominous cloud over a team that was once being discussed as an NBA title contender. DeShawn Stevenson has stepped up in Caron Butler’s place admirably but it is dubious as to whether he can maintain his current play and replace a player of Butler’s caliber. Stevenson is averaging 19.3 points per game on 48% shooting in Butler’s absense, but it would represent a career year for Stevenson if he maintained that play.
Some betting trends:
Dallas is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games and the total has gone OVER in 5 of their past 6 games. They are 2-5 SU in their last 7 and 19-6 SU in their last 25. They have gone 9-1 SU in their last 10 road games and the total has gone OVER In 5 of their past 6 on the road. They are 5-0 SU in their past 5 road games in Indiana and 4-1 SU in their last 5 road games against the Pacers. Dallas is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 against the Pacers and the total has gone OVER In 7 of those 10 games.
Indiana is 2-6 SU in their last 8 games and the total has gone UNDER In all 5 of their last 5 at home. Indiana is 2-4-1 ATS in their last 7 at home and 0-5 SU in their last 5 against the Mavs.
Key Matchups:
Jason Kidd vs. Darren Collison
Age & Experience vs. Youth and Potential…that sums this one up. Darren Collison may never evolve to be half the player Kidd has been, but he still has a very bright future and he showed that last year in New Orleans while Chris Paul was sidelined with a bum knee. Despite all the talk that Kidd is over the hill and will be slowing down and playing worse, his play has still been very good and he is averaging 8.7 assists per game, though his scoring is at a career low 8 per game. He’s also shooting a career low 34% from the floor, and while he has never shot a great percentage from the field, 34% is flat out horrible. He’ll have his hands full with Collison who is as quick as Kidd once was. He hasn’t had quite the season the Pacers had hoped for when they dealt Troy Murphy in a 3 team trade to acquire the youngster, but he has been very good for the amount of minutes he’s received and will still be a force in this league for years to come.
Shawn Marion vs. Danny Granger
Marion used to be one of the top small forwards in the league, but make no mistake, he still has some left in the tank and should be able to give Granger some problems on the defensive end, where Granger is averaging 22 points per game. Marion is averaging 11.7 points per game and 6 boards per game in 27 minutes a night, but has recently had a few good games, scoring 18, 25, 8 and 22 in his last 4 games, showing signs of the player he once was. He’s stopped shooting his unorthodox three point shots and the result has been that it has upped his field goal percentage to a stellar 52%. He’ll probably see more minutes as the season goes on with Butler out, and perhaps he can continue to show flashes of vintage Marion.
Tonight’s game is very intriguing as the lines have shifted to Indiana’s favor since opening. Dallas may be without Nowtizki but they are still a very imposing team for a team that hovers around .500 in Indiana.
