Tip off: 8:05 PM EST
Spread: OKC -5.5
Total: 196
M/L: OKC -240, DAL +200
Odds taken from Bookmaker
Dallas may be the worst defending champs in a long time. They have been blown out in their first two games against both the Miami Heat and Denver Nuggets, and they made Danilo Galinari look like he was an All NBA First team performer.
Oklahoma City has been a lot more impressive. The Thunder have jumped out of the gate 3-0, with impressive victories over Orlando and Memphis, and the expected triumph over the Timberwolves. Durant has been as impressive as ever, and put up 32 on 10 of 17 shooting and 10 of 11 from the line as the Thunder won by 3 over their playoff rivals Memphis.
Mavs Betting Trends: Dallas Is 17-6-2 ATS in their last 25 games and the total has gone OVER in 4 of their last 5 games. The Mavs are 14-5 SU in their last 19 games and 2-3-1 ATS in their last 6 games.
Mavs Statistical Trends: The Mavs are being outscored 93.5 to 110.0 this season, while ranking dead last in defensive strength, and 28th in field goal percentage allowed (49%).
Thunder Betting Trends: The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the Thunder’s last 6 games and they are 17-5 SU in their last 22 games at home. The total has gone OVER in 4 of the Thunders’ last 6 games against the Dallas Mavericks and they are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games against Dallas.
Thunder Statistical Trends: The Thunder are averaging 99.7 ppg (8th best) while giving up only 94.7 (11th best). They are not doing it on the boards (allowing 44.7 rebs per game, 22nd in the NBA)…but they are forcing a lot of misses, as opponents shoot 40.4% from the floor against OKC (6th best).
Key Matchups:
Jason Kidd vs. Russell Westbrook
After last night’s fued between Westbrook and Durant, all eyes will be on how both of them respond both to one another and tonight’s game. Westbrook certainly acted like a jerk, but he is getting a little too big for his own britches and may find his way out of a Thunder uniform by February if his cockiness continues to exceed his value as a player. Jason Kidd has never been like that, and though Westbrook may be a better player right now, if Westbrook were to take note of Kidd’s tendencies towards success, he might be all the better for it. Still, at this point in their career, Westbrook is going to abuse Kidd pretty badly, even if he abuses his team morale at the same time.
Dirk Nowitzki vs. Serge Ibaka
Ibaka seems ideally like the perfect player to put on Dirk Nowitzki. He’s long, strong, and can interfere with a lot of Dirk shots. The problem is that no one actually works on Dirk. Nowitzki is simply too talented and has too many moves that have literally no proper counter move defensively. How do you block a guy who is 7’0″ fading off of his wrong foot, sideways, 19 feet away from the hoop? Ibaka will do his best to just deny Dirk the ball as much as possible and try to push him as far away from the hoop as possible without getting into foul trouble.
If you like this analysis and feel it gives you an advantage as a bettor, check out Bookmaker for some betting action. They offer a 5% return on lost bets and a great cashout system. Also give careful consideration to a paid pick plan from Maddux Sports! Our handicappers are red hot and murdering the books once again…
