Dallas Mavericks AT New York Knicks
Feb 2, 2011 at 7:30 PM EST
Opening Line: NY -2
Current Line: NY -2.5
Opening Total: 207
Current Total: 210
Opening Moneyline: NY -125 / Dal +115
Current Moneyline: NY -130 / Dal +110
A streak will come to an end tonight. The Knicks have won three straight at home and Dallas has won five straight overall. New York has been doing it in an unexpected way: stingy and tough defense. They have held their last three opponents to 15 point fourth quarter totals.
“What I’m noticing is that the fact that when the fourth quarter comes around, guys are really focusing in and really being sharp defensively,” Knicks star Amar’e Stoudemire said. “That’s the tenacity that we have to play with, definitely in the fourth quarter, but we’re trying to put together a full 48-minute game that way.”
Stopping Dirk Nowitzki of Dallas from scoring in the fourth may prove to be a bit challenging, however. Dirk is year in and year out one of the top fourth quarter killers.
Some betting trends:
Dallas is 5-0 SU in their last 5 games and 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games. The total has gone UNDER In 5 of Dallas’ last 6 road games and they are 1-5 SU in those games. They are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games and Dallas is 8-1 SU over their last 9 games against the Knicks. Dallas is 7-1 SU in their last 8 road games against New York on the road.
New York is 3-7 SU in their last 10 games and 7-2 SU at home in their last 9 home games. THe total has gone OVER In 4 of their 6 last home games and they are 1-8 SU in their last 9 against Dallas. New York is 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games against the Mavericks. New York is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games against Dallas. The total has gone OVER in 5 of New York’s last 7 games at home against Dallas and they are 1-7 SU in their last 8 home games against the Mavericks.
Key Matchups:
Dirk Nowitzki vs. Amar’e Stoudemire
I really don’t know if these two will match up with one another defensively, but based on positions, they should be. They’ll be the main scorer on their respective team, but both could be spared fouls and effort on defense by covering one of the other front line players. We’ll see what happens there. Dirk hasn’t been himself since returning from injury, scoring more than 24 points only once in 8 games. He played relatively well last game against Washington with 24 pts, 2 ast, 4 rebs. Amar’e has been doing his thing though. Last game he went for 33 pts and 6 rebounds and he is averaging 28.5 a game while hauling in 6.5 rebounds (could use some work there of course). Dirk is too slow to cover Amar’e. Amar’e isn’t clever enough to cover Dirk. I just don’t know if they will match up against one another on defense or not.
Jason Kidd vs. Raymond Felton
Felton is on his way up in the league and has been thrown around in all star discussions. Kidd has been there and done that a million times and back, so he’s not too concerned with probably not making it this year. Felton came to New York in a free agent deal this summer and has thrived under D’Antoni, proving that a successful offensive system can be a huge benefit, especially to a point guard. Playing under Larry Brown, Felton just never seemed to hit stride. The games were too slow paced and it took him out of his rhythm. Kidd is still a passable defender, but truly lacks the short bursts of speed it takes to cover Felton and his crossover or hesitation dribble. Kidd is still averaging 8.4 assists per game, but his scoring is down to 8.1 with over half his field goals being three pointers. The result is a 35.1% field goal percentage. That’s not really acceptable for a starting point guard on a championship caliber team like Dallas, so we’ll keep on eye on if Rodrique Beaubois begins to get more minutes as Kidd rests.
Tonight’s game should be a good showdown between two very good teams. New York is barely over .500, but it has been clear that when they are at their best they are very hard to beat. Miami can attest to that. But they’ll have their hands full with Dirk and that could end up making the difference for the Mavericks.
