Texas Christian Horned Frogs at #5 Boise State Broncos
Bronco Stadium – Boise, Idaho
Saturday, November 12, 2011, 3:30 pm Eastern, TV: Versus
Opening Line: Boise St -13
Current Line: Boise St -15
Opening Total: 58
Current Total: 58 1/2
Opening Money Line: Boise St -530 / TCU +445
Current Money Line: Boise St -645 / TCU +505
Though TCU isn’t as talented as they have been in previous years and have already lost twice this season, this match-up against Boise St is still the biggest game in the Mountain West this season. TCU is 7-2 (4-0 in the MWC) this season under coach Gary Patterson, as they travel to #5 Boise St who is 8-0 (3-0 MWC) under Chris Peterson. Boise St has an outside shot of playing in the BCS national title game if they win out and get some help. TCU has losses at Baylor 50-48 and at home to rival SMU 40-33 in overtime. The Horned Frogs have home wins over Louisiana-Monroe 38-17, Portland St 55-13, New Mexico 69-0, and a win over BYU 38-28 at nearby Cowboys Stadium, along with road wins at Air Force 35-19, San Diego St 27-14, and last week at Wyoming 31-20. Boise St has home wins over Tulsa 41-21, Nevada 30-10, and Air Force 37-26, along with road wins over Georgia in Atlanta 35-21, Toledo 40-15, Fresno St 57-7, Colorado St 63-13, and last week at UNLV 48-21. Boise St leads the series 2-1 against TCU with all three meetings happening in bowl games in the last 8 years. The Broncos beat the Frogs 17-10 in the 2010 Fiesta Bowl. Both Boise St and TCU are most likely leaving the Mountain West next year, with TCU accepting an invitation to the Big 12 next year, and Boise on the verge of accepting an invite to the Big East.
TCU was a 19.5 point favorite on the college football betting line last week at Wyoming. TCU looked like they had an eye on their showdown with Boise, as they were tied at 17 at halftime. TCU ended up winning 31-20. To be fair, Wyoming will most likely go to a bowl game this year, and Laramie is a tough place to play because of the altitude and remote location. TCU overcame 5 turnovers in the win. TCU had 617 total yards including 390 rushing yards. TCU quarterback Casey Pachall threw for 227 yards and an interception. Running back Waymon James had 12 carries for 181 yards. Ed Wesley had 19 carries, 120 yards and 2 touchdowns. Matthew Tucker had 12 carries, 90 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Wyoming had 353 total yards including 106 rushing yards, and just 15 first downs.
TCU is averaging 451.6 yards a game including 227.6 rushing yards and 224 passing yards. TCU is scoring 41.6 points a game. TCU has 15 turnovers and has allowed 11 sacks. The Horned Frogs are 67/124 on third and fourth down conversions and 43/51 scoring in the red zone with 35 touchdowns. The defense was supposed to be the strength of this team but it hasn’t been as strong as expected. The Frogs are giving up 348.7 yards a game including 225.2 passing yards and 123.4 rushing yards. TCU is allowing 22.3 points a game. TCU has forced 16 turnovers and 19 sacks this year. TCU opponents are 60/149 on third and fourth down conversions, and 19/23 scoring in the red zone with 11 touchdowns. TCU has 4 defensive/special teams touchdowns this year.
Pachall is 161/235 passing for 1,940 yards, 19 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions, along with 48 carries for 33 yards and a touchdown. James has 77 carries, 652 yards and 4 touchdowns, along with 7 catches for 47 yards. He also has a kickoff return for a touchdown and returns punts for the Frogs. Tucker has 97 carries for 532 yards and 9 touchdowns, along with 5 catches for 50 yards. Wesley has 78 carries, 528 yards, and 3 touchdowns, along with 3 catches for 67 yards. Back-up quarterback Matt Brown has 5 rushing touchdowns this season on 19 attempts. Receiver Josh Boyce has 46 catches for 704 yards and 6 touchdowns. Skye Dawson has 33 carries, 362 yards and 4 scores. David Porter III, Logan Brock, and Luke Shivers have 19 catches combined but each has at least 2 touchdown catches. Brock has 3. Antoine Hicks and Brandon Carter also get significant catches. Carter is questionable for an undisclosed reason. Kicker Ross Evans is 43/45 on extra points and 11/14 on field goals with a long of 47 yards. TCU linebacker Tanner Brock is out for the season.
Boise St was also a little sluggish in the first half last week at UNLV. Boise took a 21-14 lead late in the first half, to start a run of 34 unanswered points for the Broncos. UNLV scored late to make the final 48-21, but Boise St never came close to covering the 42 point spread. The Broncos had 416 total yards, including 185 rushing yards. Boise St quarterback Kellen Moore, a Heisman trophy contender, threw for 219 yards and 5 touchdowns. Receiver Tyler Shoemaker had 5 catches, 102 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Matt Miller had 6 catches, 58 yards, and 2 touchdown catches. Running back D.J. Harper had 13 carries, 109 yards, and a touchdown. Drew Wright also had a touchdown run. UNLV had 319 total yards including 182 rushing yards. Neither team had a turnover but UNLV had 9 penalties for 84 yards.
Boise St is averaging 479 total yards and 43.9 points a game. The Broncos throw for 294.4 yards and rush for 184.6 yards a game. The Broncos have 8 turnovers and have allowed 4 sacks this year. Boise is 62/123 on third and fourth down conversions, and 35/43 scoring in the red zone with 32 touchdowns. The Broncos are allowing 302.9 yards and 64.8 points a game. Teams are rushing for 140.4 yards a game against the Broncos and passing for 162.5 yards. The pass defense is ranied #5 in the country. Boise has forced 19 turnovers and 16 sacks so far this season. Bronco opponents are 37/124 on third and fourth down conversions, and 14/17 scoring in the red zone with 10 touchdowns. The Broncos have one defensive touchdown this season.
Moore is 192/259 passing for 2,229 yards, 29 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions this year. Running back Doug Martin has 148 carries, for 756 yards, and 9 touchdown runs, along with 19 catches, 180 yards, and 2 touchdowns. He left the UNLV game with a leg injury and is questionable against TCU. Harper has 72 carries, 365 yards, and 6 touchdowns, along with 9 catches for 63 yards and a touchdown. Wright has 36 carries, 169 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Shoemaker has 33 catches, for 601 yards, and 11 touchdowns. Miller has 39 catches, 433 yards, and 6 touchdowns. Mitch Burrows has 32 catches, 340 yards and a touchdown along with 9 carries for 59 yards and a touchdown run. Gabe Linehan has 15 carries, 173 yards and 3 touchdowns. Tight end Kyle Efaw has 17 catches, 145 yards, and 3 touchdowns. Kicker Dan Goodale is 39/45 on extra points and 3/4 on field goals with a long of 32 yards, and Michael Frisina is 3/4 on extra points. The Broncos are banged up with 7 players listed as questionable or out including 4 running backs.
Boise St is 4-4 against the spread this season and the total is 5-3 in those games. TCU is 4-5 ATS and the total is 7-2 this season. The Frogs are 9-3-1 ATS as an underdog, 3-1-1 as a road dog, 21-8 after failing to cover, 13-5 in November, 5-2 as an underdog of 10.5 points or more, 37-15-1 in conference games, 2-5 after a straight up win, and against teams with winning records. The Broncos are 4-0 at home against teams with winning road records, 41-15-1 against teams with winning records, 5-2 in conference games, 35-14-2 in November, 1-4 at home, as a home favorite of 10.5 points or more, and on turf.
One long streak will come to an end Saturday. TCU has won 21 straight Mountain West games including 11 straight road wins dating back to 2008. TCU has won 16 of their last 18 road games overall. Boise is 72-2 since 2000 on the gaudy blue turf, and has the nation’s longest home winning streak at 35 games. Both offenses are explosive and their could be a ton of points scored here. Boise needs a big win here to impress the voters and move up in the BCS standings as Stanford has a tough game with Oregon and Oklahoma St is on the road at Texas Tech who upset Oklahoma earlier in the season. TCU won’t roll over though, as their two losses are by a total of 9 points to two teams that will qualify for bowl games. Boise simply has two much this season for TCU especially at home.
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