UNLV Rebels AT Wyoming Cowboys
Jan 25, 2011 at 10 PM EST
Opening Line:  UNLV -13
Current Line: UNLV -12
Opening Total: 127.5
Current Total: 130
Opening Moneyline: UNLV -900 / Wym +650
Current Moneyline:  UNLV -850 / Wym +600

Tonight’s showdown is between Mountain West Conference rivals UNLV and Wyoming.  Wyoming is 3 games under .500 with an 8-11 record while the Runnin’ Rebels are 15-3 and 3-3 in Conference, good enough for 4th of 9 in the Conference.  UNLV has been winning their games in decisive fashion, averaging 72.1 points per game while giving up 61.3 points per game, good for a +10.8 differential, and Wyoming, despite having a losing record, has a positive differential of 1.2, as they score 66.5 and give up 65.3.

Some betting trends:

UNLV is 6-2 SU in their last 8 road games and the total has gone UNDER in 8 of their last 11 on the road.  UNLV is 5-2 SU in their last 7 road games against the Cowboys.

Wyoming is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games and 1-4 SU in their last 5.  They are 6-2 SU in their last 8 at home and 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games against UNLV.  Wyoming is 2-13 SU in their last 15 against UNLV.  The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Wyoming’s last 5 games against Runnin Rebels.  Wyoming is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games against UNLV.  Wyoming is 2-5 SU in their last 7 games against UNLV.

Wyoming is led by the trio of Desmar Jackson, Djibril Thiam, and Amath M’Baye, who collectively combine for 36.3 points (55% of Wyoming’s output).  Jackson, a 6’5″ sophomore swingman, averages 15.1 points per game, 4.6 boards, and an outstanding 2.2 steals per game.  He’s not an effective three point shooter,  but he does get to the basket well and draws a lot of fouls on opposing big men.  He’s scored in double figures in all but 3 of Wyoming’s games, and Wyoming lost all three of those games, by an average of 16.3 points per game.  Thiam and M’Baye both have similar averages of roughly 10 points per game and 5 rebounds per game.  They both play roughly the same number of minutes, as well, with 27 (Thiam) and 29 (M’Baye).  Wyoming’s starterse all play at least 27 minutes a game, but their rotation does go 9 deep, with Bouedo running up the rear of the train with 15.8 minutes a game.  They are a poor 28% as a team from three, so a zone defense often gives them problems as teams can lay off their perimeter players and clog the paint.

Four players do most of UNLV’s damage.  Chace Stanback, Tre’Von Willis, Oscar Bellfield, and Anthony Marshall all average in double figures in points and comprise 4 of a 6 man rotation for the Rebels.  Stanback, a 6’8″ junior tweener forward, leads the way in scoring with 13 points per game and 5.5 rebounds.  He’s attempted 73 threes in 18 games (4 attempts per game) and is hitting a respectable 37% from behind the arc, but UNLV is a poor three point shooting team, just like Wyoming, as the team averages only 30% from three.  Trevon Willis is wrapping up an excellent career at UNLV, and last year had his best year of the four so far, averaging 17.2 points per game on 47.8% field goals.  If he can recapture some of last year’s brilliance, UNLV could crack the top 25 in rankings.  They recently received 4 votes in the AP top 25, and 11 votes in the ESPN/USA today top 25 rankings, not good enough to crack them, but they are on the bubble.  They could make waves this March, as a possible “Cinderella Story.”