Air Force-Boise St.
Time: 8:30 PM CT (ESPN 2)
Spread: BOI -11.5
Total: 55
Betting odds c/o Bovada
Air Force and Boise State are both 7-3 on the season, but it is the hosting Broncos who are 11.5 point favorites in the game with 82.3 percent of ESPN voters choosing them to win SU. The game is at 8:30 CST and will air on ESPN 2.
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Air Force is 5-1 and in 1st place in Mountain West play. It has won four straight games over Fresno State, Hawaii, Army and Utah State. Last week against the Aggies it got 271 passing yards from Karson Roberts on 11 of 17 passing with one TD and no INTs.
Air Force rushed for 309 yards in the game with D.J. Johnson and Tyler Williams tying for the team lead with 79 yards the day. Jalen Robinette caught seven passes for 210 yards including a TD. Three others combined for an additional 61 receiving yards.
The Falcons are led by Jacobi Owens who has rushed 138 times for 669 yards on the season with six TDs. Roberts has rushed for an additional 463 yards while having thrown for 965. He has just a 54.9 percent completion ratio but the Falcons have rushed for 35 TDs this season with 3,328 rushing yards as a team.
There are four backs outside of the top-2 who all have rushed for 300 yards or more and this is a rush committee that can devastate. The Falcons make a strong pick to cover the spread, even if winning SU is a bit of a long shot as double-digit dogs.
Boise State QB Brett Rypien has been solid. He has 2,542 yards on the season with a 63.4 percent completion ratio, 14 TDs and seven INTs. His passer rating is 143.0 and his best targets are Thomas Sperbeck (1,210 yards and seven TDs), Chaz Anderson (478 yards and two TDs), Shane Williams-Rhodes (430 yards and 55 total receptions) and Jeremy McNichols (302 yards and four TDs).
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McNichols is also the leading rusher with 901 yards on 181 carries (five yards per).
McNichols has rushed for a team-high 15 TDs including a 56-yard TD run.
The rest of the Broncos have 12 rushing TDs, and this is an offense that is a good bit more versatile than what is run by the Falcons. The diversity is also its strength, because Boise State’s offense can deconstruct a defense in so many ways.
McNichols is a unique threat in being so versatile at WR/RB while Spurbeck is a 6’0” WR with the speed to find himself targeted enough to have five catches or more in the past eight games, including 10 Nov 14 against New Mexico. Spurbeck had 281 yards in the game including a 42-yard catch, but he did not have a TD.
| Air Force | Falcons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall. Over is 4-0 in Falcons last 4 conference games. Falcons are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. |
| Boise State | Under is 6-0 in Broncos last 6 home games. Over is 7-1 in Broncos last 8 vs. a team with a winning record. Under is 5-1 in Broncos last 6 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. |
| Head to Head |
