Air Force Falcons at Boise State Broncos
Bronco Stadium- Boise, Idaho
Friday, September 13, 2013, 8:00 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN
Opening Line: Boise State -24
Current Line: Boise State -23 1/2
Opening Total: 59
Current Total: 57 1/2
Opening Money Line: Boise State -2300 / Air Force +1350
Current Money Line: Boise State -2150 / Air Force +1300
The Boise State Broncos and Air Force Falcons meet for only the second time ever in a key early season Mountain West Mountain division game. Boise St won last year’s meeting 37-26 on the blue turf in Boise in the first year in the MWC for the Broncos.
Air Force is 1-1 this season with a 38-13 win over Colgate and a 52-20 home loss to Utah State in the conference opener for both schools. The Falcons are 1-1 ATS and the total is also 1-1 this season. Air Force was an 8 point underdog at home against Utah State and the total was 57.5. The Aggies never trailed as they jumped out to a 14-0 lead early. Utah State would take a 24-13 lead into halftime. The Aggies removed any drama for the outcome with 28 unanswered points to start the second half. Air Force would add a meaningless touchdown late, but they were no match for the Aggies.
Air Force is being outscored 32.5 to 29 so far in 2013. The Falcons are averaging 375.5 yards per game including 285.5 rushing yards. Air Force is giving up 438.5 yards per game and 187 rushing yards. The Falcons are +1 in turnovers with 2 takeaways. Air Force is 15/32 of third and fourth down conversions. Air Force is 8/8 scoring in the red zone with 5 touchdowns.
Quarterback Kale Pearson tore his ACL and is out for the season. Back-up Jaleel Awini has thrown for 87 yards in his 15 pass attempts with no touchdowns or picks, along with 45 rushing yards and a touchdown. Kason Roberts threw a touchdown late in the blowout loss to Utah St and could see some snaps. Jon Lee has 18 carries, 149 yards and 2 touchdowns. Broam Hart has 25 carries, 125 yards and 2 touchdowns. Receiver Ty MacArthur has 5 catches, for 82 yards.
Boise St is also 1-1 this season after being blown out at Washington 38-6 to open the season. The Broncos crushed lowly Tennessee-Martin 63-14 and easily covered the 34.5 point spread. The Broncos went over the 57.5 point total by themselves. Boise State is 1-1 ATS and the total is also 1-1 this season. Against UTM, Boise took an early 7-0 lead, but the Skyhawks tied it up late in the first. Boise would score 56 unanswered points to take a 63-7 lead into the fourth. UTM would score a garbage time touchdown in the fourth. The Broncos forced 6 turnovers and UTM also had 10 penalties.
Boise State is outscoring teams 34.5 to 26 this season. The Broncos are averaging 409 yards per game, including 195.5 rushing yards. on defense, Boise is allowing 477 yards per game, including 210 rushing yards. The Broncos are +6 in turnovers with 7 takeaways. BSU is 16/39 on third and fourth down conversions. The Broncos are 7/9 scoring in the red zone with 5 touchdowns.
Boise quarterback Joe Southwick has completed 64.6% of his passes for 386 yards, with 5 touchdowns and a pick, along with 12 carries for 17 yards. Running back Jay Ajayi has 38 carries, 173 yards and 2 touchdowns. Receiver Shane Williams-Rhodes has 9 catches, 108 yards and 2 touchdowns. Geraldo Boldewijn has 9 catches for 9 yards. Matt Miller has 11 catches for 76 yards and a touchdown. Kirby Moore has 8 catches, 53 yards and a touchdown. Five Bronco defensive players are listed as questionable or out.
Air Force is 5-2 ATS after gaining less than 275 total yards, 9-4 on fieldturf, 8-20 after a straight up loss of 20 points or more, 9-23 after allowing 280 passing yards or more, 8-22 after passing for 170 yards or less, 5-16 after allowing 40 points or more, 2-7 in September, 1-10 overall, 1-5 after allowing 200 rushing yards or more, 1-4 after a double digit home loss, 0-5 after failing to cover, after allowing more than 450 total yards, & in road games, and 0-4 after a straight up loss and in Mountain West games.
Boise State is 5-1 ATS in Friday games, 11-4 in September, 2-6 after scoring more than 40 points, 3-11 in conference games, 1-4 at home, after a cover, overall, on fieldturf, and after allowing less than 20 points, 0-4 after a straight up win, and after rushing for 200 yards or more.
Both of these teams have struggled to stop the run so far this season. This is a problem because both teams also have strong rushing attacks themselves. I just don’t see Air Force being able to score enough to keep up with the Broncos. Boise State should win this one going away.
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