Texas Christian Horned Frogs at San Diego St Aztecs
Qualcomm Stadium – San Diego, California
Saturday, October 8, 2011, 10:30 pm Eastern, TV: CBS Sports
Opening Line: TCU -4
Current Line: TCU -4 1/2
Opening Total: 56
Current Total: 56 1/2
Opening Money Line: TCU -165 / SDSU +145
Current Money Line: TCU -190 / SDSU +160
When the Mountain West schedule came out many people thought it might determine who would be able to contend with Boise St for the conference title. Now, it seems like both these teams are playing for second as the gap between them and the Broncos is huge. TCU is 3-2 under Coach Gary Patterson and has been fine as long as they haven’t played former conference rivals from North Texas. The Horned Frogs have losses at Baylor 50-48 and last week at home against Metroplex rival SMU 40-33 in overtime. TCU has wins at Air Force 35-19, and has home over Louisiana-Monroe 38-17 and Portland St 55-13. San Diego St is 3-1 this season under first year coach Rocky Long, with home wins over Cal Poly 49-21 and Washington St 42-24 along with a win at Army 23-20. The only loss came 2 weeks ago at Michigan 28-7. TCU leads the series 6-0 against San Diego St, including last year in Fort Worth 40-35. It was the closest TCU came to losing during an undefeated season last year until the Rose Bowl against Wisconsin. TCU has won 18 straight Mountain West games.TCU will leave the conference next year for either the Big 12 or the Big East.
At the end of the third quarter last week, SMU was up 27-10 against arch-rival TCU. The Horned Frogs made a furious comeback to tie it up at 33 and send it into overtime. The Mustangs won 40-33 in the extra session. Each team had one turnover and there were 20 penalties combined by the two teams. SMU had 461 total yards including 349 passing yards, while TCU had 454 yards including 304 passing yards. TCU failed to convert a two point conversion after they had scored to make it 33-23 in the fourth quarter. SMU had just scored to make it 33-17 but missed the extra point giving TCU a chance to tie it up and send it into overtime.
TCU is averaging 440.6 yards a game including 204.8 rushing yards. TCU is scoring 41.8 points a game. TCU has 6 turnovers and has allowed 6 sacks. The Horned Frogs are 39/74 on third and fourth down conversions and 23/26 scoring in the red zone with 18 touchdowns. The defense was supposed to be the strength of this team but it hasn’t been the case. The Frogs are giving up 410 yards a game 267.6 passing yards a game. TCU is allowing 27.8 points a game. TCU has forced 6 turnovers and 10 sacks this year. TCU opponents are 38/81 on third and fourth down conversions, and 13/13 scoring in the red zone with 6 touchdowns.
TCU quarterback Casey Pachall is 104/149 passing for 1,179 yards, 13 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, along with 32 carries for 50 yards and a touchdown. Running back Waym0n James has 46 carries, 379 yards and 2 touchdowns, along with 5 catches for 24 yards. Matthew Tucker has 58 carries for 276 yards and 6 touchdowns, along with 4 catches for 41 yards. Receiver Josh Boyce has 32 catches for 494 yards and 4 touchdowns. Skye Dawson has 21 carries, 192 yards and 2 scores. David Porter III, Logan Brock, and Luke Shivers have 11 catches combined but each has 2 touchdown catches. Kicker Ross Evans is 22/23 on extra points and 7/10 on field goals with a long of 44 yards. TCU linebacker Tanner Brock and tackle James Dunbar are both out for the season.
Two weeks ago, San Diego St traveled to Michigan. Michigan jumped out to a 21-0 halftime lead with 3 rushing touchdowns from quarterback Denard Robinson. San Diego St scored at the end of the third quarter and had a chance to cover the 10 point college football betting line. However, Michigan scored another touchdown in the fourth quarter to win 28-7. There were 7 combined turnovers in the game, 4 by Michigan. San Diego St had 376 total yards while Michigan had 413 total yards including 320 rushing yards.
San Diego St is averaging 415 yards a game and 30.2 points a game. The Aztecs are averaging 196.2 rushing yards a game. Through three games SDSU has 5 turnovers and has allowed two sacks. The Aztecs are 31/67 on third and fourth down conversions for the season and 11/14 scoring in the red zone with 11 touchdowns. San Diego St is allowing 390.5 yards and 23.2 points a game. The Aztecs are giving up 227.8 rushing yards a game, which is near the bottom of the country. The Aztec pass defense is giving up only 162.8 yards a game which is 9th best in the country. SDSU has forced 12 turnovers and 9 sacks this year. Aztec opponents are 27/62 on third and fourth down conversions and 9/9 scoring in the red zone with 9 touchdowns.
Aztec Quarterback Ryan Lindley is 67/130 passing with 875 yards, 8 touchdowns and an interception. Running back Ronnie Hillman has 98 carries for 606 yards, and 8 rushing touchdowns, along with 8 catches for 68 yards. Receiver Colin Lockett has 19 catches, 325 yards, and 3 touchdowns. Dylan Denso has 16 catches for 217 yards and 2 touchdowns. Gavin Escobar has 13 catches, 158 yards, and 3 touchdowns. The Aztecs have three receivers that are out for the season and another Larry Clark is doubtful with a knee injury. Depth could be an issue for the Aztecs at the position. Kicker Abelardo Perez is 16/17 on extra points and 1/3 on field goals with a 42 yarder. Aztec defensive backs Josh Wade and Brandon Davis are both out for the season.
San Diego St is 2-2 against the spread this year and the total is also 2-2. TCU is 2-3 ATS and all 5 games have gone over the total. The last 2 games in this series have gone over the total. TCU is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 following a straight up loss, 4-0 ATS following a bye week, 20-7 ATS following a game where they failed to cover, 35-15-1 ATS in their last 51 conference games, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 as a favorite, and 1-5 ATS as a favorite of between 3.5 and 10 points, including 1-4 on the road. San Diego St is 6-0 ATS after game in which they failed to cover, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games, as a home underdog of 3.5 to 10 points, and in the last 4 on grass, 4-1 ATS following a straight up loss, and following a bye week, and 9-4 ATS as an underdog of between 3.5 and 10 points.
Both these schools are coming off disappointing games. They both have a lot of talent and will contend with Air Force for the second best team in the Mountain West. I see a lot of points as both offenses are explosive, and the defenses have struggled.
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