Mountain West Basketball: San Diego St at TCU

San Diego St Aztecs at TCU Horned Frogs, Daniel-Meyer Coliseum, Ft. Worth, TX
Wednesday, January 5, 2011, 7:30 pm Eastern, TV: The Mountain
Opening Line: SDSU -9
Current Line: SDSU -10 1/2
Opening Total: 135 1/2
Current Total: 135
Money Line: SDSU -600 / TCU +475

San Diego St is a 10 1/2 point favorite on the road at the TCU horned Frogs in the Mountain West opener for both teams.

The San Diego St Aztecs are off to the best start in team history at 15-0. They are ranked #6 in the latest poll and are the first ever Mountain West team to finish undefeated in non-conference play. They have wins over Gonzaga, St. Mary’s (CA), Wichita St, and California on the season. The Aztecs travel to Texas to take on the TCU Horned Frogs in the Mountain West Conference opener for both teams. The 9-6 TCU Horned Frogs have been inconsistent this season. They have wins over SMU, Bradley, Houston, USC, and Texas Tech this season. However they have losses to Rider, UMass, Northern Iowa, Nebraska, Tulsa, and Rice on the season. San Diego St has won four straight games in the series against TCU, and leads the overall series 9-4. The Aztecs are 9-1 versus TCU since they became conference rivals in 2005. The Aztecs are 20-11 ATS in road games the last 3 seasons. TCU is 11-18 ATS in home games the last 3 seasons.

San Diego St has a couple of injuries to deal with. Forward Tim Shelton is questionable with a knee injury. He missed the last game but only plays 12 minutes a game anyway. The bigger concern for the Aztecs could be forward Billy White. He is listed as probable with an ankle injury. White is averaging 10.5 points, 3.7 rebounds, 1.7 assists, and 1.4 steals a game. The Aztecs are led in scoring and rebounding by Kawahi Leonard. He averages 15.7 points, 9.6 rebounds, 2.6 assists, and 1.5 steals a game. Guard D.J. Gay averages 11.9 points, and 3.1 assists a game to lead the team. Forward Malcolm Thomas averages 11.6 points, 7.1 rebounds, 2.1 assists, and 2.0 blocks a game to lead the team. Guard Chase Tapley leads the team in steals with 1.6 a game. The Aztecs are outscoring opponents 75-59 on the season. They shoot 51.0% from the field and 34.5% from 3-point range. San Diego St holds opponents to 40.3% from the field. the Aztecs are making 69.2% of their free throws. They average 34.7 rebounds a game and have a rebounding margin of +6.3. They average 14.1 assists and 11.4 turnovers a game. The Aztecs force 10.9 turnovers a game on defense. They average 6.6 steals and 4.6 blocks a game.

TCU has injury concerns of their own. Leading scorer Ronnie Moss is questionable with a concussion. He didn’t play in the Frogs 70-61 loss at Rice on Sunday. The Horned Frogs have no shot of pulling off the upset if Moss can’t play against San Diego St. moss averages 15.3 points, 2.6 rebounds, amd 4.1 assists a game. Forward Garlon Green averages 11.9 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 1.1 assists a game. Guard Hank Thorns averages 9.4 points, and leads the team in assists with 5.7 a game. He is also tied for the team lead in steals with 1.3 a game with guard J.R. Cadot. Cadot is also the team leader in rebounds with 6.4 a game. TCU is outscoring opponents 74-69 on the season. TCU shoots 46.3% from the field and 36.8% from 3-point range. Horned Frog opponents are shooting 44.0% from the field. TCU makes 67.7% of their free throws. They average 34.7 rebounds a game and have a rebounding margin of +0.8. They average 14.9 assists and 13.1 turnovers a game. They force 14.5 turnovers a game on defense. They average 7.1 steals and 2.4 blocks a game.

Bettors should keep an eye of the Moss situation for TCU, obviously as the Frogs aren’t nearly the same team without Moss. Neither of these teams rebound exceptionally well. The Aztecs are clearly the superior team and have had TCU’s number recently. I think that trend will continue tonight in Ft. Worth.