Seattle Mariners (23-24) at Minnesota Twins (15-31)
May 24, 2011 at 8:10 PM EST
Opening Moneyline:  Even
Current Moneyline:  MIN -115, SEA -105
Opening Total:  7.5
Current Total: 8

SP:  SEA- D. Fister, MIN- N. Blackburn

Doug Fister has been pitching well.  Unfortunately, he hasn’t received much run support and consequently is not reaping the statistical benefits of a pitcher that is supported by a good offense.  Prior to the 8-7 game last night, the Mariners starting pitchers had recorded quality starts (7+ IP, < 3 ER) for nine consecutive games.

Fister is 2-4 with a 2.93 ERA, something that seems nearly impossible.  He started two of the aformentioned nine games and threw eight innings in both contests, yet the trend continued as he failed to get a win for either matchup.  He gave up only one run and 6 hits on Thursday in L.A., and he exited a tied game that eventually resulted in a 2-1 Mariners’ victory.

Fister is 0-3 with a 3.66 ERA in his three career matchups against the Twins.  Fister is a bit of a contradiction in that he started off last season with an excellent ERA just to have it unwind as the season went on; we’ll see if this year is any different.  His PECOTA projection predicts a 9-8 record with a 4.37 ERA.  While the 9-8 record may be unattainable given the run production of the Mariners, the 4.37 ERA may be a bit bloated given his early success…

“He kept us in both games, and that’s all we can ask for,” catcher Chris Gimenez said of Fister. “He can’t get caught up in the (won-loss record). His other numbers really show what he’s done. If he keeps us in ballgames like that, we’re going to find ways to win some of those.”

Fister will have ample opportunity to record another win against a Minnesota Twins team that curently has the worst record in the MLB and they have dropped four straight games, including having lost their last nine home games.  Not having Joe Mauer certainly hasn’t helped, and Jim Thome just returned from injury and is only seven home runs short of having 600 for his career.  He was just happy to be back on the field:

“You go on the DL and you go down, you always want to come back and swing the bat well,” Thome said. “Unfortunately, we didn’t win the ballgame. That’s what you want to do every night. It felt good to swing the bat good, but ultimately, it’s all about winning.”

Nick Blackburn will take the mound for the Twins.  Blackburn is 3-4 on the year with a 3.40 ERA, but he is 2-0 with a 1.63 ERA this month.  Thursday against the A’s he gave up only one run and five hits over seven innings as the Twins won big, 11-1.  In his six career matchups against the Mariners, he is 2-1 with a 3.13 ERA, and on August 28th, his last apperance against Seattle, he held them to only two hits in 8 2/3rds innings.  Blackburn’s PECOTA projection predicts a 10-11 record with a 4.64 ERA.  His sinker and fastball combination is deadly and when he works it at its best, he can be dominant; mixing his pitches up sometimes proves to be a problem though.

Some betting trends:

Minnesota is 12-10 (+1.8 units) against the Seattle Mariners over the last three sesaons and 13 of the last 20 games between these teams has gone UNDER the total over the last three seasons.  Minnesota is 1-1 (+0.7 units) against the Mariners this season and one of the two games went OVER the total.  Minnesota is 7-3 (+3.2 units) against Seattle at home over the last three seasons and 5 of the last 9 games in the series at Minnesota have gone OVER.  The betting public is correct when moving the total in Minnesota Twins games 44.3% of the time over the last three seasons.

Both pitchers are relatively hot which should result in a low scoring game, further evidenced by the low 7.5 opening total.  Blackburn is historically a better pitcher but Fister has been awesome this year, even if his record fails to indicate it.