Miami Heat AT Chicago Bulls
May 15, 2011 at 8 PM EST
Opening Line:  CHI -2
Current Line:  CHI -2
Opening Total:  182.5
Current Total:  180
Opening Moneyline:  MIA -175, CHI +155
Current Moneyline:  CHI -130, MIA +110

Series Odds:  MIA -180, CHI +160

This series brings together the two best players so far in the 2011 playoffs:  Derrick Rose and LeBron James.  Rose led the Bulls to the best record, but it is James’ Miami Heat with the best playoff record at 8-2, having lost only 1 game to each of their first round and second round opponents.

The Bulls have went 8-3 but may have faced the easiest road to a Conference Final in recent history, after playing the 8-games-below .500 Indiana Pacers in the opening round and then facing a 3-games-over .500 Atlanta Hawks team.  While the Bulls won both series with relative ease, but they did face a lot of close games against two opponents that just couldn’t close the Bulls out in the fourth quarter of close games.

Now we’re going to do a position-by-position break down, much as I have for the other series I’ve covered.

Point Guard

Derrick Rose vs.  Mario Chalmers / Mike Bibby

It’s questionable whether Bibby will see many minutes in this series given the defensive problems he would create here.  Chalmers is a much better defender but still will be unable to cover Rose, and if Spoelstra already realizes that he may make the adjustment of putting shooting guard Dwyane Wade on the Bulls MVP point guard.  Rose and Wade are similar players, but it’s likely the Bulls will keep Ronnie Brewer and Keith Bogans on Wade.  It’s the Heat that are going to have to make the adjustment.

Rose has scored 25 or more in 7 of the Bulls’ 12 games, including a 44 point playoff career high in the 99-82 Game 3 win against Atlanta.  Chalmers, meanwhile, has had two big games and nothing else of note.  In Game 5 against the Sixers in the opening round, Chalmers scored 20, and he scored 17 in the lone series loss to the Celtics.

It’s obvious to see that any matchup against the league MVP at PG would result in a huge Bulls advantage and this is no exception.

Advantage:  Chicago

Shooting Guard

Keith Bogans / Ronnie Brewer vs. Dwayne Wade

While both Bogans and Brewer offer the Bulls little offensively, their defense on Wade will prove to be one of the crucial elements of this series.  Wade has scored 30 or more 3 times so far in the Heat’s 10 games.  He’s also logged 39 minutes or more in 7 of the Heat’s 10 games.  Wade did experience his lowest scoring average since a injury riddled 07-08 campaign, but it was his efficiency improving that gave the Heat no reason at all for complaint.  Besides that, he was sharing the ball with another big scorer in James and a player who at least does command the occasional double team in Bosh.  Brewer will probably be the better defender here on Wade because he has better lateral foot speed and doesn’t fall for as many fakes as Bogans, a crucial element in Wade’s arsenal, as he’ll look to get both off their feet and cause them to commit “cheap” fouls.

Advantage:  Miami

Small Forward

Luol Deng vs. LeBron James

It’s clear to any basketball fan at all that the Heat have this one covered, but to those who have carefully followed the Bulls, they will know that Deng is quickly establishing himself as one of the league’s premier small forwards.  Against the second leading vote getter for the Defensive Player of the Year, Josh Smith, Deng held his own and bettered Smith in 4 of the 6 games.  The two games which he didn’t, Smith went off for huge games, though, so the “big game” factor of LeBron James certainly plays a large element here.  LeBron has a huge strength advantage over the slender Deng and will probably look to post up more than usual.   Expect quick Bulls double teams when he does, which will only result in more easy looks for James’ teammates.  If Deng can play somewhat effective defense it could enable the Bulls to sneak by in this series, but it’s hard to fathom Deng holding LeBron under 25 points in any games this series.

Advantage:  Miami

Power Forward

Carlos Boozer vs. Chris Bosh

In his days with the Raptors, Bosh sure looked a lot better.  Deferring too much to his two all star teammates proved to be a problem for Bosh all year and his confidence seemingly wavered as a result of not being “the man” on his team.  His scoring average went from 24.0 points per game with the Raptors down to 18.7 with the Heat.  What is troubling, though, is that given the Heat’s problems on the boards at times, Bosh’s rebounding has gone down to 8.3 boards a game (from 10.8 last year) despite still receiving the same amount of minutes.  He also used to average 1.0 blocked shots a game, but that number has been halved this season, further illustrating his ineffectiveness on the interior defensively.

Boozer has the kind of bull-like (no pun intended) body that will give Bosh problems.  Boozer’s pumpfakes will give Bosh problems, as well.  While Boozer has been ineffective so far in the playoffs, this could be the matchup that brings out the best in him and enables him to break his funk.  Bosh is the superior player, however, given his length and athleticism.  Bosh had two very poor games against the Celtics, one of which the Heat lost (his 6 point 1 of 6 FG performance in game 3), but he’s also played 40 minutes or more in 5 of the Heat’s 10 games, since the Heat don’t have Udonis Haslem to back him up now.

Advantage:  Miami (by a hair)

Center

Joakim Noah vs. Erick Dampier / Joel Anthony / Zydrunas Ilgauskas

Noah isn’t exactly gifted offensively, but he’s probably better than all 3 Bulls’ centers offensively, with Ilgauskas’ effective jumpshot being the only other tool offensively of the four players.  Noah scores most of his baskets on uncontested dunks and put backs, while Dampier and Anthony seldom provide even that much.  Joel Anthony is a good shot blocker and defensive player, but his offensive deficiencies make playing him big minutes a questionable proposition, as it would allow Noah to roam on defense and play more effective help-side defense.  Regardless of how much Noah may get under players and fans’ skin alike, it’s undeniable that he is easily better than the Miami trio of centers.

Advantage:  Chicago

With advantages at 3 of the 5 positions (all 3 being the “Big 3’s” positions, of course), it’s hard not to realize why Miami is favored in this series.  Despite all the experts and oddsmakers predicting a close series, I don’t think it will be at all.  I firmly expect LeBron to dominate Deng and for Wade to find ways to make Chicago’s effective defensive two guards into practice dummies.

Series Prediction:  Miami in 5 or 6