Last season, the Grizzlies improved drastically, and reached a record of 40-42, a 16 game improvement from the year before.  Zach Randolph exploded last year, making his first all star team.  This summer the team signed Rudy Gay to a max contract, signaling their committment to him as one of the leagues rising stars.  There’s no reason not to expect the Grizzlies to finish above .500 this season, as their chemistry continues to get better and they make their ascent into the better teams in the Western Conference.  Had they been in the east last year, they would have been a 5 or 6 seed probably, but the rugged Western Conference poses challenges for even the pretty decent teams like the Grizz.

Zach Randolph Over/Under 20.5 ppg

OVER.  “Z Bo” has averaged 20.5 or more in each of his last four seasons, and with no real changes in the Grizzlies roster, I think his production will stay about the same.  He was at 20.8 ppg last year, and with increased confidence from having made the all-star team, as well as him being in his prime, we have to figure he’ll be closer to 21 than to 20 ppg.

Zach Randolph Over/Under 11.3 rpg

OVER.  Last season he averaged 11.7, and in 08-09 he was at 12.5.  His tenure with the Clippers saw an decrease in rebounding, to under 10 a game, but that seems to have been an anomally.  I think he’ll be close to 12 this year, and this is a decent bet for ‘over.’

Rudy Gay Over/Under 19.3 ppg

OVER.  Two of the last three seasons he has been over 19.3 ppg, and I think this year might be a breakout season of sorts for Rudy, maybe averaging 21 a game.  The ‘over’ on this seems to be the way to go, if you’re going to wager on this one.  However, I don’t think this is necessarily the most sure-fire bet.

OJ Mayo Over/Under 18.3 ppg

Too close to call.  OJ suffered a sophmore slump of sorts, dipping below 18 a game last year.  This could be an improvement year, as the third year trend seems to go, but the fact he failed to average 18 a game last year is a bit of a red flag.  Stay away from this bet.

Marc Gasol Over/Under 14.7 ppg

OVER.  While he was slightly under last year (14.6), Marc Gasol seems to be improving with every game.  His ppg last year were up 2.7 from the year before, and I expect a similar jump this year.  I am led to believe that Marc Gasol averages about 16 a game this year, making this a clear ‘over.’

Mike Conley Over/Under 11.3 ppg & Over/Under 4.7 apg

Too close to call.  Conley averaged 12 a game last year, but with OJ Mayo possibly seeing some time at point this year, he may see a reduction in minutes.  He has increased by small increments every year, and was at 12 a game last year, but this one isn’t easy to project and I would stay away from betting on Conley in either points or assists.

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