Maryland Terrapins at Clemson Tigers
Saturday, 10/16/10, 12:00 PM EDT, TV: ESPN3
Opening Point Spread: Clemson -13
Current Betting Line: Clemson -14
Opening Total: 48.5
Current Total: 47
Current Moneyline: Clemson -600 / Maryland +475
Maryland has won back-to-back games and is off to one of its best starts under head coach Ralph Friedgen. The Terrapins now begin a stretch of playing four of their next five games on the road and look to move to 2-0 in ACC play. During the 2009 season, the team scored its only conference victory against the Tigers, while going 6-3 against Clemson under Friedgen. “They’ve played better than us,” Tigers head coach Dabo Swinney suggested. “Last year was a very difficult day. We had a bunch of turnovers.” A win on Saturday would give Maryland its first 2-0 start in conference play since 2005, but it will not be easy considering the club has not won a ACC road game since 2008. The team is 7-9 ATS against conference opponents and the total is 4-13 Over/Under in those games.
The Terrapins offense ranks fourth in the ACC and 42nd nationally in scoring 31.8 points per game and is led by third-year offensive coordinator James Franklin. Maryland has done a much better job in accumulating explosive plays this year, nothing 30 thus far and have scored 12 touchdowns on those plays. In 2009, Maryland had just 13 scores off explosive plays for the entire season. After going +7.0 in turnover margin to end the season last year, the Terps have continued that success by ranking first in the ACC and sixth nationally in the category (+1.60). Maryland is +8 on the season and has won the turnover battle in all five games. Defensively, the unit has the best red-zone defense in the ACC and ranks sixth nationally, while also ranking first in the ACC in scoring defense (18.4 ppg).
Clemson holds a 30-26-2 advantage in the series with Maryland and had won 13 of 14 prior to Friedgen’s arrival in College Park. Five of the last six meetings have been decided by four points or less and the Tigers have dropped the last two contests by exactly three points. The team has struggled with penalties and turnovers the last two contests and Swinney is expecting the locker room to sort things out. “I think we’ve got the leadership that it’s going to take to come out of it,” he commented. “I think the guys believe and if we stay committed to those little things, we’ll be OK.” Clemson may come out energized due to the school retiring number-28 in honor of star running back C.J. Spiller, as he is a rookie with the Buffalo Bills this year. The team is 0-3 ATS at home this year and 0-2 ATS as a favorite.
The Tigers have started 2-3 or worse eight seasons in the last 25 years and came back to become bowl eligible six of those eight years. An interesting matchup in this contest will be Clemson versus Maryland in the red-zone. Offensively, the team has scored touchdowns 89 percent of the time this year (16-of-18) compared to last year when they scored just 28 touchdowns in 49 red-zone opportunities last year. Creating turnovers is also going to be a major category of interest due to the Terps’ numbers, but the Tigers are tied for third in the ACC with seven interceptions.
Bettors will be interested in playing the Terrapins due to their 6-1 ATS mark in seven games as a road underdog of 10.5 points or more, but the team is 2-5-1 ATS as a road underdog. Clemson fails to impress anyone with a 12-25 ATS mark as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points. As for our free pick have to take Maryland getting anything better than 14 in this game. Off a bye the spot looks like a good one. For more free and premium winners visit our free college football picks page of the site.
