Golden State Warriors AT Utah Jazz
December 13th, 2010 at 9:05 EST
Opening Line: Utah Jazz -11
Current Line: Utah Jazz -11
Opening Total: 210.5
Current Total: 207
Opening Moneyline: Golden State +600 / Utah -800
Current Moneyline: Golden State +587 / Utah -763
Golden State has been struggling mightily and has lost 6 consecutive games. After starting the season 4-1 and appearing to be a promising team, they have since gone 4-14, despite a high powered offensive lineup. They simply don’t play enough defense. Utah (17-8) will seek to exploit that tonight. Deron Williams, Paul Millsap, and Al Jefferson have done over half of Utah’s scoring this season and are averaging a combined 57.3 of Utah’s 101.1 points per game. Utah is coming off of a loss to Dallas (who has won 12 straight now) and have lost three of their last five games now.
Utah has a +3.7 point differential this season, scorign 101.1 per game and giving up 97.4. Golden State, as you would suspect, has been quite horrible with a -6.3 point differential, as they give up 107 points per game while only managing 100.6 themselves.
Golden State is 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games and the total has gone UNDER in 13 of Golden State’s past 19 games. They have won just 3 of 13 road games this season and the total has gone UNDER in 6 of the last 7 games Golden State has played in Utah. In their past thirteen contests, Golden State has won just 3 of them, and they have won just one of the past eleven games in Utah.
Despite the recent struggles of Golden State against Utah, they actually won the last matchup on November 5th in an uncharateristically low scoring game for Golden State, 85-78.
For Golden State, they are currently down on their luck, as one of their best two players in Stephen Curry is nursing an ankle injury. They have lost 9 of their last 11 when missing either Stephen Curry or Monta Ellis, and will struggle without their playmaker tonight. Look for Monta Ellis to see a lot of time at the point guard spot, where he will check Deron Williams on defense. Deron Williams is arguably the best point guard in the league this season, averaging a career best 22.7 points per game to go along with 9.8 assists per night. He is also playing 3 minutes more per game than his career average and has led Utah’s potent offensive attack. Ellis has the size to cover Deron Williams and definitely has the speed to stay in front of him. Golden State recently brought back Acie Law, as Stephen Curry’s injury has left them depleted at the point guard spot. Law will see decent minutes tonight when Ellis is playing shooting guard.
Another key matchup tonight will be David Lee vs. Paul Millsap. Lee has not found his niche yet with the Warriors but is capable of big games as he was an all-star last year, averaging 20&10 for the Knicks. His numbers have been hurt in Golden State where he is not the number one option anymore, but will see more looks with Curry out tonight. Millsap has had some very impressive games this season (not the least of which was his 46 point outburst against the Heat in a Jazz win earlier this season) and is capable also of having very big nights. Millsap is the better defender of the two and will probably get the best of this matchup. He has just recently pulled out of a mini-slump, and has scored 16 or better in 5 of his last 6 games, including two games with 20 or more. Last game against Golden State he did fairly well, going 6 of 11 from the floor for 12 points and grabbed 11 boards. The Jazz will have to get a good game out of Millsap tonight, as the Warriors are capable of putting up points, if nothing else.
Realistically, it is going to be very difficult for the Warriors to win this game without Stephen Curry. They’re simply not a good enough team to be missing key players and still win. Moreover, Golden State has struggled on the road and historically the Delta Center of the Jazz is one of the toughest arenas for road teams to play in. The point spread may seem high to be in double figures but NBA handicappers may be right on for this one.
