Akr0n Zips at Miami RedHawks
Yager Stadium – Oxford, Ohio
Thursday, November 3, 2011, 7:30 pm Eastern, TV: ESPNU
Opening Line: Miami -15
Current Line: Miami -14
Opening Total: 47 1/2
Current Total: 47 1/2
Opening Money Line: Miami -525 / Akron +425
Current Money Line: Miami -525 / Akron +425
Akron and Miami meet for the 21st time Thursday in Oxford. Miami leads the series 14-5-1, and has won 7 of the last 8 and the last 2 including 19-14 last season in Akron. Akron hasn’t played in Oxford since 2007. Akron is 1-7 this season under coach Rob Ianello, and 0-4 in the MAC East. Miami is coached by Don Treadwell and is 3-5 this season and 2-2 in conference. Despite having a losing record the RedHawks are only a half game behind Temple for first place in the MAC East. Akron’s lone win came at home over VMI 36-13. The Zips have road losses at Ohio St 42-0, Cincinnati 59-14, and Eastern Michigan 31-23, along with home losses to Temple 41-3, Florida International 27-17, Ohio 37-20, and last week against Central Michigan 23-22. Akron has lost 4 games in a row. Miami started off the season 0-4 but has since won 3 of 4. Miami has road losses at Missouri 17-6, Minnesota 29-23, and at Toledo 49-28, along with home losses to Bowling Green 37-23 and Cincinnati 27-0. The RedHawks have home wins over Army 35-28 and last week against Buffalo 41-13, along with a road win at Kent St 9-3.
Akron was a 7 point underdog last week on the college football betting line at home against Central Michigan. The Chippewas were up 20-0 in the third quarter but Akron made a furious comeback and ended up losing 23-22. Akron missed two separate two point conversions including a gutsy call on the last play of the game that would have won the game. I suppose if you only have one win on the season, you really have nothing to lose by gambling instead of taking the conservative play of kicking the extra point and sending it into overtime. Akron had 407 total yards including 138 rushing yards. Akron quarterback Clayton Moore threw for 228 yards with 2 touchdowns and an interception. Running back Jawon Chisholm had 19 carries for 130 yards and a touchdown. Receiver Marquelo Suel had 11 catches, 112 yards and 2 touchdowns. Central Michigan had 383 total yards including 192 rushing yards.
Akron has one of the worst offenses in college football averaging 308.6 yards and 16.9 points a game. The Zips average 187.4 passing yards and 121.2 rushing yards. Akron has 14 turnovers and has allowed 28 sacks this season. The Zips are 41/129 on third and fourth down conversions, and 16/21 scoring in the red zone with 12 touchdowns. The Zips give up 412.4 yards and 34.1 points a game on defense. Akron allows 207.2 passing yards and 205.1 rushing yards a game. The Zips have forced 11 turnovers and 8 sacks. Akron opponents are 55/115 on third and fourth down conversions, and 34/37 scoring in the red zone and 24 touchdowns. Akron has no defensive/special teams touchdowns this season but has allowed 3.
Moore is 110/216 passing with 1,347 yards, 9 touchdowns and 7 interceptions, along with 68 carries, 102 yards, and a touchdown. He also has a touchdown catch. Back-up Patrick Nicely has a touchdown pass and an interception in 25 attempts this season. Chisholm has 154 carries, 753 yards, and 4 touchdowns, along with 9 catches for 66 yards. He also threw a touchdown pass in his only attempt of the year. Receiver Keith Sconiers has 34 catches, 536 yards, and 5 touchdowns. Suel has 25 catches, 293 yards, and 3 touchdowns. Kicker A.J. Fox is 6/6 on extra points and 4/4 on field goals with a long of 43 yards. He has been the kicker the last 3 games, after T.J. Marchese was benched after 5 games. Marchese was 6/8 on extra points, and 3/6 on field goals with a long of 48 yards. Four Akron players are listed as questionable or out for the season including 2 offensive linemen and 2 defensive players.
Miami hosted Buffalo last week, and the RedHawks were 4.5 point favorites. The two teams scored 34 points in the first quarter as Miami jumped out to a 21-13 lead. Buffalo pulled to within 14-13 but missed the extra point. Miami scored the last 27 points of the game to win 41-13 and easily cover. The game featured 14 total penalties and 5 penalties (3 by Buffalo.) Miami had 441 total yards including 313 passing yards from quarterback Zac Dysert who had 5 touchdowns and an interception. He also had 39 rushing yards. Running back Tyrone Jones rushed for 58 yards and a touchdown. Receiver Dawan Scott had 3 catches, 141 yards, and a touchdown. Chris Givens had 2 touchdown catches. Buffalo had 358 total yards including 77 rushing yards in the loss.
Miami averages 345.6 total yards and 20.6 points a game. The passing attack is #29 in the country with 278.1 yards, but the rushing game is the worst in the country averaging 67.5 yards a game. Miami has 16 turnovers and has allowed 27 sacks this season. Miami is 46/127 on third and fourth down conversions, and 20/26 scoring in the red zone with 19 touchdowns. The RedHawks give up 368.4 total yards and 25.4 points a game. Miami allows 191 passing yards and 177.4 rushing yards per game. The RedHawks have forced 13 sacks and 19 turnovers. Miami opponents are 48/129 on third and fourth down conversions, and 25/32 scoring in the red zone with 19 touchdowns. Miami has one defensive touchdown but has allowed 3 this season.
Dysert is 178/285 passing with 2,149 yards, along with 14 touchdowns and 8 interceptions, along with 67 carries for 33 yards and 2 touchdowns. Back-up Austin Boucher has a touchdown pass in 9 attempts this season. Running back Erik Finklea had 92 carries, 328 yards, and 4 touchdowns. Jones and Chrishawn Dupuy also get significant carries. Receiver Nick Harwell has 50 catches for 778 yards and 2 touchdowns. Scott has 16 catches, 370 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Givens has 28 catches, 321 yards, and 4 touchdowns. Andy Cruse and Justin Semmes also have 3 touchdown catches each. Kicker Mason Krysinski is 19/22 on extra points and 2/4 on field goals with a long of 45 yards. Three RedHawk players are out indefinitely including 2 defensive players.
Miami is 4-4 against the spread this season and the total is 5-3 in those games. Akron is 4-4 ATS and the total is also 4-4 in those games. The Zips is 4-1 ATS versus teams with losing records, following a cover, overall, and on turf, 5-2 in conference, 1-4 ATS as an underdog of10.5 points or more, and as a road underdog of 10.5 points or more. The RedHawks are 4-1 ATS following a straight up win, 6-2 against teams with losing records, 9-3 as a home favorite of 10.5 points or more, 5-2 as a favorite, and at home, 4-10 in November, 2-7 as a home favorite, 1-4 after scoring more than 40 points the previous game, and 0-4 after a win by 20 points or more.
Miami is a bad team, but Akron is awful. Neither team is great on offense but have decent defenses except against the run. Both teams struggle to run the ball though, especially Miami. Miami should win this game but I would be afraid to lay 2 touchdowns with such an inconsistent team.
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