Western Michigan Broncos at Miami RedHawks
Yager Stadium – Oxford, Ohio
Wednesday, November 16, 2011, 8:00 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN2
Opening Line: Miami -3 (-105)
Current Line: Miami -1 1/2
Opening Total: 58 1/2
Current Total: 58 1/2
Opening Money Line: Miami -125 / WMU +105
Current Money Line: Miami -125 / WMU +105
The 4-6 Miami RedHawks host the 5-5 Western Michigan Broncos Wednesday night. Both teams are 3-3 in the MAC and are trying to get bowl eligible. Miami has an outside shot of winning the MAC East title but needs to win out, and hope Temple and Ohio lose the rest of their games. Miami is coached by Don Treadwell and started off the season 0-4. The RedHawks have road losses at Missouri 17-6, at Minnesota 29-23, Toledo 49-28, and last week at Temple 24-21, along with home losses to Bowling Green 37-23 and Cincinnati 27-0. Miami has home wins against Army 35-28, Buffalo 41-13, and Akron 35-3, and a road win at Kent St 9-3. Western Michigan is coached by Bill Cubit, and has home wins over Nicholls St 38-7, Central Michigan 44-14, Bowling Green 45-21, and Ball St 45-35 along with a road win at Connecticut 38-31. The Broncos have road losses at Michigan 34-10, Illinois 23-20, Northern Illinois 51-22, Eastern Michigan 14-10, and last week at Toledo 66-63. Miami leads the series 37-18-1 against Bowling Green, including 21-4-1 in Oxford. Western Michigan has won 2 games in a row in the series including 48-26 in 2009 at Kalamazoo the last time they played. The Broncos haven’t played at Miami since 2001 and haven’t won in Oxford since 1994.
Western Michigan was a 12 point underdog at Toledo last week on the college football betting line. It was a wild shootout, with 126 points, 1,439 combined yards, 16 total penalties and 10 combined turnovers (6 by Toledo.) The Broncos jumped out to a 14-0 lead in the first quarter but the Rockets stormed back with 21 unanswered points. The two teams were tied at 28 at halftime. Toledo went ahead 49-35 in the third quarter and WMU was never able to take the lead again. The Rockets were up 66-56 with less than 2 minutes left, and the Broncos scored with a minute left to pull within 3 points, but were unable to recover the onside kick. Toledo held on for the 66-63 win. It was the second Toledo game in a row where both teams scored in the 60’s after Toledo lost to Northern Illinois 63-60 the week before. Western Michigan had 635 yards including 548 passing yards from Broncos quarterback Alex Carder who was 38/59 passing with 7 touchdowns and no interceptions. He also had a rushing touchdown. Receiver Jordan White had 16 catches, 238 yards, and 3 touchdown catches. Four other Broncos caught touchdowns. Toledo had 804 total yards including 419 rushing yards. Each team had a defensive touchdown.
Western Michigan is averaging 442.7 yards a game and 33.5 points a game. The Broncos average 318 passing yards and 124.7 rushing yards a game. The passing attack is ranked #9 in the country. WMU has 23 turnovers and has allowed 19 sacks this season. The Broncos are 72/149 on third and fourth down conversions, and 39/42 scoring in the red zone with 31 touchdowns. Western Michigan is allowing 453.5 yards a game and 29.6 points per game on defense. The Broncos give up 217 passing yards and 236.5 rushing yards a game. The overall defense and defense against the run are among the worst in the country. WMU has forced 20 turnovers and 15 sacks this season. Bronco opponents are 56/147 on third and fourth down conversions and 27/39 scoring in the red zone with 21 touchdowns. The Broncos average just under 8 penalties for 58 yards a game. WMU has one defensive touchdown but has allowed 5.
Carder is 241/357 passing for 2,822 yards, with 25 touchdowns and 8 interceptions, plus 96 carries, 234 yards, and 4 touchdowns. Running back Tevin Drake has 85 carries, 478 yards, and 4 touchdowns. Brian Fields has 51 carries, 247 yards, and 2 touchdowns, along with 11 catches for 99 yards. Antoin Scriven has only 19 carries, but has 3 touchdown runs. White has 99 catches, 1,283 yards, and 12 touchdown catches. White has almost 1,600 all purpose yards as he also returns punts. Caleb Ravenell has 42 catches, 570 yards, and 6 touchdowns. Robert Arnheim has 44 catches, 500 yards, and 3 touchdowns. Kicker John Potter is 41/41 on extra points and 12/17 on field goals with a long of 45 yards.
Miami was a 13.5 point underdog last week at Temple.Temple was up 17-7 at halftime and held on for a 24-21 win. Miami pulled to within 3 points with 4 minutes to go, and kicked off to Temple and never got the ball back. Miami had 428 total yards including 364 passing yards from quarterback Zac Dysert who had 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. Dysert was sacked 7 times in the loss. Miami Receiver Nick Harwell had 15 catches, 229 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Chris Givens had 7 catches, 95 yards, and a touchdown. Miami was unable to overcome 3 turnovers in the loss. Temple had 310 total yards including 218 rushing yards.
Miami averages 357.6 total yards and 22.1 points a game. The passing attack is #21 in the country with 280.4 yards, but the rushing game is the worst in the country averaging 77.2 yards a game. Miami has 19 turnovers and has allowed 35 sacks this season. Miami is 60/158 on third and fourth down conversions, and 24/31 scoring in the red zone with 23 touchdowns. The RedHawks give up 345.8 total yards and points a game. Miami allows 171 passing yards and 174.8 rushing yards per game. The pass defense is #7 in the country. The RedHawks have forced 21 sacks and 15 turnovers. Miami opponents are 60/162 on third and fourth down conversions, and 30/38 scoring in the red zone with 22 touchdowns. Miami has one defensive touchdown but has allowed 3 this season.
Dysert is 218/341 passing with 2,728 yards, along with 19 touchdowns and 10 interceptions, along with 90 carries for 50 yards and 3 touchdowns. Back-up Austin Boucher has a touchdown pass in 10 attempts this season. Running back Erik Finklea had 92 carries, 328 yards, and 4 touchdowns. He hasn’t played in three games but isn’t listed on the injury report. Justin Semmes has 41 carries, 170 yards and 2 touchdowns, along with 8 catches, 79 yards, and 3 touchdowns. Tyrone Jones and Chrishawn Dupuy also get significant carries. Harwell has 69 catches for 1,124 yards and 5 touchdowns. Givens has 39 catches, 462 yards, and 5 touchdowns. Dawan Scott has 16 catches, 370 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Andy Cruse has 35 catches, 326 yards, and 4 touchdowns. Kicker Mason Krysinski is 27/30 on extra points and 2/4 on field goals with a long of 45 yards. Six RedHawk players are questionable or out indefinitely including 5 defensive players.
Miami is 6-4 against the spread and the total is also 6-4 this season. Western Michigan is 6-4 ATS and the total is 6-4 this season. The Broncos are 5-1-2 ATS after a cover, 5-2 against teams with losing records, 5-11-1 as a road underdog, 2-5 after allowing more than 40 points in the previous game, 5-13-2 as an underdog, 1-5 as an underdog of 3 points or less, and as a road underdog of 3 points or less. The RedHawks are 5-1 ATS as a favorite of 3 points or less and overall, 4-1 in conference games, in November, and on turf, 6-2 as a favorite, 5-2 after a cover, and 4-10 as a home favorite.
Neither of these teams are good at stopping the run, but that shouldn’t be an issue as neither team runs the ball very well either. Miami should be able to win this game at home because of their pass defense.
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