We are going to take a break from college basketball for the next couple of days, but before we do I want to look ahead to the Sweet Sixteen while the first two rounds are still fresh in my mind. Keep in mind, as always, that any opinions given are just my own and don’t necessarily reflect or agree with anything official from Maddux Sports. That being said, the first two rounds could certainly have gone worse for me, so I am feeling good. Here, then, are thoughts on what we have in store on Thursday and Friday:
1. My first reaction was that Villanova matches up very well with Duke, and that they should be more than competitive. Because of that, the spread of +2 seemed pretty attractive. I’m not alone in that, either – nearly 70 percent of bets so far have been made on Villanova. There is something a bit strange going on so far given the bet distribution, though – Villanova can be had at a price of +100 – no juice. That could indicate that some smart action is hitting Duke hard.
2. My gut instinct is that the spread of seven points gives too much credit to Pitt over Xavier. The matchup isn’t great for Xavier, but they are playing well and are fast and shifty, and I am not in love with how Pitt is playing. Xavier could win, and they have a real chance to keep it close.
3. Louisville is by far my favorite team remaining in the tournament, but nine points is a lot to beat a potentially explosive team like Arizona by. Especially given how well Arizona has played.
4. No one is giving Purdue any credit at all based on the betting patterns. I have ongoing doubts about UConn, and I have enjoyed watching Purdue this year, so I want to believe they could pull off the upset. Or at least the cover. Now I just have to figure out if I am being delusional by thinking that.
5. I might be going to far, but I can’t think of a single reason to believe in Kansas. I think they are too young, not nearly deep enough, and I don’t think they match up well with Michigan State at all.
6. Gonzaga getting 8.5 points is tempting. I just don’t know if Gonzaga has enough tools to counteract the interior size that the Tar Heels can throw around. I’m a sucker for attractive underdogs, so I’ll be hard pressed to tear myself away from the Zags, but I’ll still have to think about this one.
7. I am really surprised that Oklahoma is only favored by one point. I was expecting to get a few more points on Syracuse. That being said, I like their matchup with the Sooners reasonably well, and I am leaning Orange. It could partly be that watching Blake Griffin devour my Michigan, and be such an annoying schmuck about it, has soured me on them.
8. If Tyreke Evans plays reasonably well or better then it is hard to imagine Missouri getting the win.
