Texas Tech Red Raiders at #21 Texas Longhorns
Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium – Austin, Texas
Saturday, November 5, 2011, 12:00 pm Eastern, TV: FX
Opening Line: Texas -10
Current Line: Texas -14
Opening Total: 62 1/2
Current Total: 61 1/2
Opening Money Line: Texas -550 / Texas Tech +450
Current Money Line: Texas -600 / Texas Tech +500
For Texas Tech to say last week was a disappointment would be a massive understatement. A week after upsetting then #3 Oklahoma 41-38 on the road, the Red Raiders lost at home to Iowa St 41-7. Now the 5-3 (2-3 in conference) Red Raiders try to rebound at rival Texas. Texas is 5-2 (2-2 in conference) this year and is ranked #21 in the BCS standings. Texas Tech is coached by Tommy Tuberville and has lost 3 of the last 4 after starting off 4-0. The Red Raiders have home wins over Texas St 50-10 and Nevada 35-34 along with road wins over New Mexico 59-13 and Kansas 45-34. Texas Tech has home losses to Texas A&M 45-40 and Kansas St 41-34. Texas is coached by Mack Brown, and also started off the season 4-0 before losses to Oklahoma 55-17 in Dallas and at home to Oklahoma St 38-26. Texas has home wins over Rice 34-9, BYU 17-16, and last week against Kansas 43-0, along with road wins at UCLA 49-20 and Iowa St 37-14. This is the 60th meeting between Texas and Texas Tech, and the Longhorns lead the series 44-15. Texas has won 2 straight in the series including 24-14 last year in Lubbock.
Texas Tech coaches and players admitted there was a hangover from the Oklahoma win the previous week and the Red Raiders didn’t take Iowa St seriously. It showed as Texas Tech was a 15.5 point favorite on the college football betting line and were crushed 41-7. The Red Raiders were never in the game as Iowa St jumped out to a 21-0 lead in the first quarter. Texas Tech had a season low 290 total yards including 99 rushing yards, and 15 first downs. Texas Tech quarterback Seth Doege threw for 171 yards and 2 interceptions with no touchdown passes. He did have a rushing touchdown though. Doege had been averaging more than 350 yards passing coming into the Iowa St game. The Red Raiders had 3 turnovers in the loss. Iowa St had 512 total yards including 368 rushing yards.
Texas Tech has one of the most potent offenses in the country averaging 508.1 total yards and 38.9 points a game. The Red Raiders are averaging 359.6 passing yards a game. Those numbers are all ranked in the top 15 nationally. Texas Tech rushes for 148.5 yards a game. The Red Raiders have 7 turnovers and have allowed 12 sacks. Texas Tech is 64/127 on third and fourth down conversions, and 36/39 scoring in the red zone with 31 touchdowns. Tech is allowing 436 yards including 225.8 rushing yards and 210.2 passing yards a game. Texas Tech is allowing 32 points a game. Texas Tech has forced 13 turnovers and 9 sacks. Red Raider opponents are 47/112 on third and fourth down conversions, and 25/31 scoring in the red zone, with 20 touchdowns. Texas Tech averages 7 penalties for 64 yards a game. Texas Tech has no defensive/special teams touchdowns but has allowed 3.
Doege is 254/374 passing with 2,779 yards, 22 touchdowns and 6 interceptions along with 42 carries for 67 yards and 3 rushing touchdowns. Running back Eric Stephens had 109 carries, 570 yards, and 8 touchdowns, along with 15 catches for 128 yards. He is out for the season with a torn ACL. DeAndre Washington has 55 carries, 268 yards, and 3 touchdowns along with 8 catches for 26 yards. Aaron Crawford has 53 carries, 219 yards, and a touchdown, along with 7 catches for 47 yards. Ronnie Daniels is suspended indefinitely. Receiver Alex Torres has 41 catches, 510 yards, and 4 touchdowns. Eric Ward has 49 catches for 492 yards, and 8 scores. Darrin Moore has 23 catches, 354 yards, and 4 touchdowns. He missed three games with a knee injury and has only caught two passes in the two games since he returned. Cornelius Douglas and Jacoby Franks also get significant targets. Tramain Swindell and Jace Amaro each have 2 touchdown catches. Kicker Donnie Carona is 39/39 on extra points and 10/14 on field goals with a long of 49 yards. Texas Tech has 7 players listed as questionable or out including 5 defensive players.
Texas was a 28 point favorite at home last week against hapless Kansas. The Longhorns were up 26-0 at halftime and breezed to a 43-0 win. This would have made a great basketball game, but not so much in football. Each team had 2 turnovers in the game, but that was the only thing that was equal. Kansas had 46 total yards, including -2 rushing yards, and just 3 first downs. The Longhorns scored a safety in the second quarter on a Kansas penalty in the end zone. Texas had 590 total yards including 441 rushing yards, and 35 first downs. Texas quarterback David Ash threw for 145 yards and an interception. He had a rushing touchdown in the rout. Texas running back Joe Bergeron had 13 carries, 136 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Malcolm Brown had 28 carries, 119 yards, and 2 touchdowns.
Texas is averaging 414.6 yards and 31.9 points a game. The Longhorns average 195.7 passing yards, and 218.9 rushing yards a game. Texas has 15 turnovers and has allowed 18 sacks. Texas is 55/121 on third and fourth down conversions, and 24/34 scoring in the red zone with 16 touchdowns. The Longhorns allow 296.4 yards and 21.7 points a game. Texas gives up 192.3 passing yards and 104.1 rushing yards a game. Texas has forced 15 turnovers and 10 sacks this season. Longhorn opponents are 29/106 on third and fourth down conversions, and 18/22 scoring in the red zone with 10 touchdowns. Texas has 3 special teams touchdowns this season, but has allowed 4 defensive/special teams touchdowns. Although 3 came in the Oklahoma game.
Texas quarterbacks David Ash and Case McCoy were platooning until two games ago when Ash was named the full time starter. Ash is 61/98 passing for 615 yards, 3 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, and he has a rushing touchdown. McCoy is 36/54 passing for 444 yards and 2 touchdowns. Receivers John Harris and Jaxon Shipley each have a touchdown pass out of the Wildcat formation. Brown has 131 carries, 635 yards, and 5 touchdowns. Foswhitt Whittaker has 52 carries, 288 yards, and 4 touchdowns, and 15 catches, 129 yards, and a touchdown catch. Whittaker also has 2 kickoff returns for touchdowns. Bergeron has 31 carries, 223 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Fullback Cody Johnson has 4 touchdown runs. Shipley has 33 catches, 438 yards, and 3 touchdowns, along with 11 carries for 39 yards. He is probable with a knee injury. Mike Davis has 27 catches, 418 yards, and a touchdown. D.J. Grant has 9 catches and 3 touchdowns. Kicker Justin Tucker is 27/27 on extra points, and 10/11 on field goals with a long of 52 yards.
Texas is 4-3 against the spread this season and the total is 3-3-1 in those games. Texas Tech is 5-3 ATS and 6 of the 8 games have gone over the total. The last two games have gone under the total in this series. The Red Raiders are 5-1-2 ATS following a double digit loss at home, 5-1 after allowing 40 points or more, 9-3-1 after scoring 20 points or less, 6-2 as a road underdog of 10.5 points or more, 45-18-1 following a straight up loss, 5-2 as an underdog of 10.5 points or more, 49-24-1 after failing to cover, and 3-7 as a road underdog. The Longhorns are 5-1 ATS as a favorite, 7-15 overall, 7-18-1 against teams with winning records, 3-8 after coring 40 points or more, and on turf, 3-9 at home and following a straight up win, 2-7 in conference games, 1-4 in November games, 1-5 after allowing less than 20 points, 1-6 following a cover, and 0-5 at home against teams with winning road records.
Which Texas Tech team will show up for this game? If it is the team that beat Oklahoma, then they have a great shot of pulling off the upset against an inconsistent Texas team. However, if they play even half as badly as they did last week against Iowa St, then it will be a long day for the Red Raiders. I think this is too many points as Texas Tech will be angry after being humiliated last week.
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