New Mexico Lobos at San Diego St Aztecs, Viejas Arena at Aztec Bowl, San Diego, CA
Wednesday, February 16, 2011, 10:30 pm Eastern, TV: The Mountain
Opening Line: San Diego St -10 1/2
Current Line: San Diego St -9 1/2
Opening Total: 130 1/2
Current Total: 131
Money Line: SDSU -500 / UNM +400
These two Mountain West rivals played last month in Albuquerque. San Diego St had the upper hand in that game 87-77. San Diego St is ranked #6 in both polls. They are 25-1 overall, which is tied with Ohio St for the best record in the nation. The Aztecs are 10-1 in the Mountain West. The Mountain West is one of the strongest conferences in the country. It is the #4 ranked conference in the RPI, ahead of the ACC, SEC, and Pac-10 conferences. They could get as many as 5 teams in the NCAA tournament, though 3 or 4 is more likely. The Aztecs host the 17-8 New Mexico Lobos, who are 5-5 in conference. San Diego St’s only loss is at BYU who is also ranked in the top 10. San Diego St has wins over Long Beach St, Gonzaga, St. Mary’s (CA), Wichita St, Cal, TCU twice, Utah twice, UNLV twice, Air Force, Wyoming, and Colorado St. San Diego St has won 5 in a row since the BYU loss, including a 63-57 win at UNLV Saturday. New Mexico has losses to Cal, Northern Iowa, Dayton, Wyoming, Utah, UNLV, and Colorado St. The 68-62 loss Saturday at Colorado St snapped a 4 game winning streak for the Lobos. The Lobos have wins over Arizona St, Colorado, Texas Tech, Colorado St, TCU, BYU, Air Force, and Wyoming.
New Mexico leads the overall series 38-30, but the Aztecs are 20-11 in San Diego. San Diego St has won and covered 4 of the last 6 games in the series. Four of the six have gone over the total as well. The Aztecs have won 17 straight at home and 40 of 42 overall. SDSU is 33-22 ATS in all games the last 2 seasons, 40-24 as a favorite the last 3 seasons.
New Mexico forward Emmanuel Negedu is out for the season with an illness. He hasn’t played since December 19, but was averaging 4.7 points and 5.3 rebounds a game. New Mexico has four players averaging in double figure scoring. They are led by guard Dairese Gary who is averaging 12.9 points to lead the team, 3 rebounds, 5.4 assists to lead the team, and 1.3 steals a game. Forward Drew Gordon averages 12.3 points, 9.3 rebounds, and 1.3 blocks a game. He leads the team in rebounds and blocks. Guard kendall Williams averages 11.7 points, 3.1 rebounds, 4.5 assists, and 1.6 steals a game to lead the team. Guard Phillip McDonald averages 11 points and 4.8 rebounds a game. New Mexico is outscoring opponents 74-65 on the season. The Lobos are shooting 46.9% from the field, and 35% from 3-point range. New Mexico opponents are shooting 41.4% from the field. The Lobos make 70.5% of their free throws. They average 36.6 rebounds a game and have a rebounding margin of +5.2. The Lobos average 15.7 assists and 13.4 turnovers a game. They force 14.4 turnovers a game on defense. The Lobos average 6.6 steals and 3.3 blocks a game.
San Diego St guard D.J. Gay (ankle), forward Tim Shelton (foot) and guard Chase Tapley (ankle) are all listed as probable tonight. Both Tapley and Shelton missed the Aztecs last 2 games. The Aztecs are led by Kawhi Leonard. He is averaging a double double with 14.8 points, and 10.6 rebounds to lead the team in each category. He also averages 2.6 assists and leads the team in steals with 1.4 a game. Senior point guard Gay is averaging 12.3 points, 2 rebounds, and 3.4 assists to lead the team and 1 steal a game. Forward Malcolm Thomas averages 10.9 points, 8.1 rebounds, 2.1 assists and leads the team in blocks with 2.2 a game. Tapley is averaging 8.5 points, 2.1 rebounds, 2 assists, and 1.3 steals a game. San Diego St is outscoring opponents 73-59 on the season. The Aztecs shoot 47.7% from the field and 35.4% from 3-point range. Aztec opponents are shooting 39.3% from the field. SDSU makes 68.1% of their free throws. The Aztecs average 37.1 rebounds a game and have a rebounding margin of +6.6. San Diego St averages 14 assists and 10.8 turnovers a game. SDSU forces 12.4 turnovers a game on defense. The Aztecs average 6 steals and 4.7 blocks a game.
New Mexico seems to playing better basketball recently. The Lobos’ resume probably isn’t impressive enough to garner an at-large bid to the tournament, so the probably have to win the MWC tournament to get in. An NIT bid is likely though. San Diego St needs to keep winning to have a shot at the conference title and a possible #2 seed in the NCAA tournament. San Diego St is very tough at home and I think they should win this game. New Mexico will hang tough but San Diego St’s defense will prove to be too much for the Lobos to overcome.
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