Las Vegas Invite
Spread: UNLV -12
Total: Not Released At Time of Issue
Moneyline: UNLV -1100, USC +750
Tip off: 7:30 PM EST
Odds taken from Bookmaker
USC
Last season, USC finished with a 19-15 record and were 10-8 in the PAC-12. They lost by 13 to VCU in the opening round of the NCAA tournament, despite having the 2nd best defense in the PAC-12. During the season, they surrendered only 0.99 points per possession. Just making the tournament made the season a success, however, as they closed the season with 5 wins in their last 6 conference games, including victories over both Cal and Washington. In the game against VCU, USC was favored, but were upset by the Cinderella train of VCU.
USC coach Kevin O’Neill inherited a real mess after Tim Floyd’s recruiting violation involving O.J. Mayo. Due to the problem, USC imposed a self-punishment that included a ban on post sesaon play in the 09-10 season. O’Neill was not without blemishes himself, though, after an argument with an Arizona booster escalated at a bar and O’Neill was suspended for the rest of the conference tournament but returned for the NCAA tournament and kept his job.
Depth was an issue for the Trojans. It was accentuated by the transferring of high recruit Bryce Jones, who was on the verge of being dismissed from the team following a fight with teammate Garrett Jackson. Because of the loss of Jones, by the end of the year USC was only using a six man rotation. It also won’t help that they lost Nikola Vucevic after his junior year to the NBA. They also lost starters Marcus Simmons, Donte Smith, and Alex Stephenson. USC, in fact, returns only two players who played more than 11 minutes per game last season.
So far this season, they are 2-3, and had dropped three straight after winning opening night against Cal State Northridge. The losses came in heartbreaking fashion: a 3 point double over time loss to Nebraska, a 2 point loss to San Diego State, and another low scoring 42-36 loss to Cal Poly. They stopped the bleeding last game by beating Morgan State by 3. No Trojan game has been decided by any more than 7 points thus far.
They have been led in scoring by the duo of Aaron Fuller and Maurice Jones. Fuller, a 6’6″ 235 pound junior is a transfer student from Iowa and is considered to be their best player. He was the go-to guy for the Hawkeyes last season in his sophomore campaign and made 52% of his two point field goal attempts. His strength enables him to play well against bigger players and he is averaging a team high 6.6 boards per night, to go along with his 15.0 points per game. Teammate Jones is playing over 40 minutes a game due to the double over time game, and is putting up 14.6 points per game, but is shooting a dreadful 31.9% from the floor. He has already had a 2 of 13 night (against Cal State Northridge) and a 1 of 11 night against Cal Poly. Such inefficency isn’t unexpected though, as Jones shot only 37.2% from the floor last season. He’s also only shoting 25.9% from three. In the opening night win, he shot 0 of 7 from deep.
USC must toughen up on the interior. They are averaging only 32 rebounds per game and have only 3 blocks so far as a team, through 5 games. Moreover, they are going to have to shoot better than 40.2% from the floor to win consistently.
UNLV
The Running Rebels are off to a blazing 5-0 start and currently rank 2nd in the nation in assists per game, with 21.6 on average per game. They are in the top 35 in all major statistical categories, and save a 4 point win over Nevada, all of their wins have come by 17 points or more. The success is not a huge surprise. UNLV finished 24-9 last season wtih a 11-5 in conference record. They lost in the opening round of the NCAA tournament to Illinois, and it was their defense that got them to the Big Dance. The Rebels had the 2nd best in conference defense, and surrendered only 0.96 points per possession in conference play.
Coach David Rice is a former player of Jerry Tarkanian’s Final four teams from the early 90s and he has shown it with his run ‘n’ gun style. Rice has the Rebels pushing the tempo every night, and they have scored 83.2 points per game this season, good for 27th best in the nation.
The Runnin’ Rebels have all five starters averaging in double figures so far, as might be expected given their dominance early on. UCLA transfer Mike Moser is averaging 16.0 points to go along with an amazing 13.0 rebounds per game. Despite weighing less than 200 pounds at 6’8″ he had 20 rebounds in an opening night win over Grand Canyon and 17 boards in the blowout victory over Morgan State, a game in which he was only 4 assists shy of a triple double. He’s also blocked six shots so far, and scored in double figures in all but the Nevada game.
Third team all conference player Chace Stanback has been impressive, too. Despite playing the least minutes of any starter with only 25.5 minutes per game, he is still averaging 15.5 points per game and 5.8 boards, while shooting 51.3% from the floor. He has also drilled half of his three opoint shots (9 of 18).
Quintrell Thomas is a great rebounder, but has been a non-factor so far and is only seeing 14.6 minutes per game. Last season, he would have been in the top 50 nationally for rebounding percentage, but he didn’t play enough minutes to qualify for the stat. That was mostly due to foul troubles. In his 12 minutes per game this season, he is still averaging 4.8 rebounds per game, but last season he picked up more fouls than he absorbed and as a junior he is going to have to make bigger strides to solidify what should already be a strong Rebels’ frontline. They have the potential and scoring ability to win the Mountain West Conference. Their up tempo game and outstanding athleticism will make it tough for a lot of opponents to keep pace and score with the Rebels, just as the old Tark teams of the 90s.
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