2012 NBA Playoffs Western Conference Semifinals
#3 Los Angeles Lakers vs #2 Oklahoma City Thunder
Best of Seven Series, Format 2-2-1-1-1
Series Price (odds courtesy of bookmaker): OKC -460 / LAL +380
Game #1 Monday, May 14, 2012, 9:35 pm Eastern, TV: TNT
Chesapeake Energy Arena – Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
Game #1 Opening Line: Oklahoma City -6 1/2
Game #1 Current Line: Oklahoma City -7 1/2
Game #1 Opening Total: 193
Game #1 Current Total: 191
Game #1 Opening Money Line: Thunder -315 / Lakers +265
Game #1 Current Money Line: Thunder -420 / Lakers +340

After surviving a tough 7 game series against the Denver Nuggets the Los Angeles Lakers will now take on the well rested Oklahoma City Thunder in the Western Conference Semifinals. The Thunder swept the defending champion Dallas Mavericks and hasn’t played in 9 days. The Lakers meanwhile, had a 3-1 series lead against the Nuggets, but Denver came back to force a game 7 Saturday night.

Denver fought back from a 16 point deficit in the second half to take a 73-69 lead early in the fourth.  However, in order to make the comeback, Denver put in a smaller line-up. The Laker big men Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum dominated on the offensive glass, and the Lakers ended up winning 96-87. After battling serious stomach problems in Thursday’s game 6, Kobe Bryant was exhausted and needed his teammates to help. They certainly provided that help. Gasol and Bynum both had double-doubles. Steve Blake provided 19 points off the bench and made 5 of his 6 three point attempts. The Lakers were also bolstered by the return of Metta World Peace, who served a 7 game suspension for a vicious elbow to the Thunder’s James Harden late in the regular season. Peace scored 15 points in the game #7 win.

Now the Lakers will take on the Oklahoma City Thunder. As mentioned, the Thunder haven’t played since May 5. Even though they swept the Mavericks, the series was closer than it would appear. Three of the games weren’t decided until the final minute of the game, and Dallas had late fourth quarter leads in all three of those games. In game 4, Oklahoma City entered the fourth quarter trailing 81-68. The Thunder outscored Dallas 35-16 to win the game 103-97. The Thunder took the lead for good with just over 5 minutes to go at 92-91. Dallas had no answer for James Harden, the NBA’s sixth man of the year. Harden scored 15 of his 29 points in the fourth quarter. Kevin Durant had 24 points and 11 rebounds. Russell Westbrook, Derek Fisher, and Serge Ibaka also scored in double digits. With such a large deficit in the fourth quarter, the Thunder could have easily decided to fold, knowing they had game #5 at home. However, they wanted to win and complete the sweep.

Oklahoma City leads the series 2-1 against the Lakers this season. The Thunder, coached by Scott Brooks, won February 23rd 100-85 in OKC and 102-93 in LA March 29. The last meeting between the teams April 22 was a memorable one, not just because of the World Peace/Harden elbow incident. The Thunder had a 17 point lead in the fourth quarter, before the Lakers tied it up and sent it into overtime. The Lakers coached by Mike Brown, ended up winning 114-106 in double overtime.

Bryant is averaging 29.1 points a game during the playoffs along with 4.6 rebounds, 5 assists, and 1.1 steals a game. Bynum is averaging 16.7 points, 12.3 rebounds, 1.4 assists, and 4 blocks a game in the playoffs. Gasol is averaging 12.9 points, 9.1 rebounds, 4.3 assists, and 2.4 blocks a game. Point guard Ramon Sessions is averaging 11.7 points, 3.4 rebounds, and 4 assists a game. Blake, Jordan Hill, Devin Ebanks, and Matt Barnes also get significant minutes in the rotation. The X factor is World Peace, who is still one of the best defenders in the league, and can also add some scoring as he did in game 7. The Lakers have no injuries listed.

Durant is averaging 26.5 points, 7.5 rebounds, 3.8 assists, and 1.75 blocks a game during the playoffs. Westbrook is averaging 22.3 points, 3.8 rebounds, 4.3 assists, and 2.3 steals a game. Harden is averaging 18.3 points, 5.5 rebounds, 4.3 rebounds, and 2.5 steals a game. Power forward Serge Ibaka is averaging 11 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 3.3 blocks a game. Derek Fisher, Kendrick Perkins, Daequan Cook, Thabo Sefalosha, and Nick Collison also get significant minutes. Fisher, of course, played for the Lakers for many years, but was traded to Houston when the Lakers acquired Sessions from Cleveland. The Rockets released Fisher who then signed with the Thunder. Perkins is questionable with a hip injury he suffered in game 4 against Dallas.

Oklahoma City is 37-33 ATS and the total is 32-38 this season. Los Angeles is 31-42 ATS and the total is 40-32-1 this season. The favorite is 7-3 ATS in the last ten in this series. Oklahoma City is 5-2 at home against Los Angeles. Seven of the last Ten played in OKC have gone under.

The Lakers are 2-5 ATS as an underdog, 6-16 on one day rest, 1-4 in road games, and as a road underdog, 1-5 in Monday games, and as a road underdog of 5-10.5 points, 1-6 as an underdog, 0-6 after a straight-up win, 0-4 in conference semifinal games, and 0-5 after a cover.

The Thunder are 2-5 ATS overall, in Western Conference games, 3-9 against teams with winning records, 1-4 as a favorite, as a home favorite, as a playoff favorite, at home against teams with losing road records, and after scoring 100 points or more, 1-5 in Monday games, and as a favorite of 5-10.5 points, including 0-5 at home, and  0-4 at home.

Some say the nine days off for the Thunder is too much and they will rusty. Even if that is true, that will only be an issue for the first quarter and maybe the first half. I would rather have 9 days off than have to play late Saturday night and travel from LA to Oklahoma City for a Monday game, especially with the condensed schedule because of the lockout.

Oklahoma City is more versatile than Denver who gave the Lakers all they could handle. The Thunder can play big or small against the Lakers, and Westbrook should have a field day against Sessions and Blake. It won’t be easy, but the Thunder win in six hard fought games.

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