New York Mets (34-34) AT Atlanta Braves (38-31)
June 16, 2011 at 7:10 PM EST
Opening Moneyline: ATL -130, NYM +110
Current Moneyline: ATL -144, NYM +125
Opening Total: 8
Current Total: 7.5
SP: NYM- R.A. Dickey; ATL- Mike Minor
The Mets didn’t come into this series favored, yet they have a chance to pull a sweep tonight with a victory over the Atlanta Braves. The Mets have surged, winning 9 of their last 13 games, including 6 of 9 on the road trip (this is the last game of the 10 game trip).
Wednesday night, the Mets held the Braves to two hits, as Dillon Gee picked up the win in the 4-0 shutout.
“Well, we’re here, but we’ve got to stay here now,” manager Terry Collins said. “It’s been a long road and a long uphill battle. Now we’ve got to move forward.”
A win tonight would give the Mets their longest win streak against the Braves since they won 5 in a row in 1988. A large portion of the reason is their outstanding pitching. They’ve reeled off a 1.75 ERA and Dickey will take the mound tonight, who is 3-7 with a 3.98 ERA. Dickey is a knuckleball pitcher and nearly 83% of his pitches were knuckle balls last year.
Unlike successful knuckleballer Tim Wakefield, Dickey has a good fastball to go with his butterfly fluttering knuckleballs. He has a 28% ground out rate and the pitch’s unpredictability, mixed with his fastball makes him an effective, if unorthodox, pitcher.
Jason Bay is tryign to get back on track for the Mets. The slugger had 2 hits Wednesday night but is batting just .214 and has only 2 HRs and 11 RBIs. He’s batting .117 this month. Terry Collins said “You’re got to have some confidence on the field,” as it appears Bay is struggling more mentally than physically after missing much of last season. Collins added, “When he gets his stroke back, he’s the left fielder, hands down.”
Atlanta is hitting .146 with only 7 runs recorded in the last 4 games against the Mets. They will need better production from everyone to start winning games again. Braves second baseman Dan Uggla said their offense is “on the verge of exploding.” Whatever he gauges that on, Mike Minor would sure be pleased if his prophecy were correct.
Minor is 0-2 with a 4.50 ERA and gets another start in place of the injured Brandon Beachy. Minor was the seventh overall pick of the 2009 draft and was expected to reach the majors quickly, as he did. What made him such a quick success was a faster-than-anticipated fastball, which climbed up above 95 mph and his ground ball ratio was nearly 4:1, and keeping the ball out of the air – and out of the outfield – is one of Minor’s specialties.
In fairness, Minor hasn’t received much run support, with only 2 runs in 4 starts this season, making it impossible to record victories. Saturday was no different, as he received only 2 runs support while giving up 2 runs in 6 innings, in a 10 inning loss.
Some betting trends:
The New York Mets are 8-3 SU in their las 11 games and the total has gone UNDER in 4 of the Mets’ last 5 games. The total has gone UNDER in 4 of their last 5 on the road, as well, while the Mets are 5-2 SU in their last 7 on the road. The total has gone UNDER in 17 of their last 25 against the Atlanta Braves and the Mets are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games against the Braves. The Mets are 6-12 SU in their last 18 on the road in Atlanta and are 4-2 SU In their last 6 on ther road in Atlanta. The total has gone UNDER in 6 of the last 7 games on the road against the Braves.
Atlanta is 6-3 SU in their last 9 games and they are 1-4 SU In their last 5 games at home. The Braves are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games against the New York Mets and the total has gone UNDER in 17 of the last 25 against the Mets. The total has also gone UNDER in 6 of the last 7 at home against the Mets while the Braves are 2-4 SU In their last 6 games at home against the Mets. The Braves are 12-6 SU in their last 18 games at home against the Mets.
The Braves find themselves slight favorites in this game despite sending an inexperienced rookie to the mound. They will have trouble with Dickey’s change of pace pitching and fluttering knuckler. Ofter after facing him once, however, batters come back more ready and able to anticipate his odd pitching regime.
