Kentucky Wildcats at #25 Louisville Cardinals
Sunday, September 2, 2012, 3:30 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN
Papa John’s Cardinal Stadium – Louisville, Kentucky
Opening Line: Louisville -14
Current Line: Louisville -13
Opening Total: 42 1/2
Current Total: 42
Opening Money Line: Louisville -475 / Kentucky +395
Current Money Line:  Louisville -475 / Kentucky +395

When the 4 team college football playoff starts after the 2014 season, it is safe to say Bluegrass rivals Kentucky and Louisville will never meet in one of the semifinals as the two schools did in 2012 men’s basketball Final Four. Still, it is a pretty big rivalry in all sports. Kentucky leads the football series against Louisville 14-10 including a 6-3 record in Louisville. The Cardinals won the Governor’s Cup for the first  time since 2006 with their 24-17 victory over the Wildcats in Lexington last year.

Kentucky is coached by Joker Phillips. The Wildcats finished 5-7 last year. They started off 2-0 with wins over Western Kentucky and Central Michigan. The Wildcats then went 2-7, including a 4 game losing streak. Kentucky ended the season with a 10-7 win at home against rival Tennessee that kept the Volunteers from going to a bowl game. Kentucky had narrow losses to Mississippi St 28-16 and Georgia 19-10 but the other four losses (other than Louisville) were by 28 or more. The Tennessee win was the best win of the season, and the Vols only won 5 games last year. Kentucky was 6-6 ATS and the total was 5-6-1 last season.

Louisville is coached by Charlie Strong. The Cardinals were 7-6 last year. Louisville finished 5-2 in the Big East and tied for the conference title with West Virginia and Syracuse. West Virginia won the tiebreaker and went to the Orange Bowl. Louisville started off 2-1 but then lost 3 in a row. The Cardinals went 5-1 for the rest of the regular season, but had to settle for a berth in the Belk Bowl where they lost to North Carolina St 31-24. Every Louisville loss was by 9 points or less, and aside from a 27-10 win over Syracuse every other win was decided by 14 points or less. The best win of the season was a 38-35 win at West Virginia. The Cardinals were 8-5 ATS and the total was 4-8-1 last season.

Kentucky was #118 in total offense last year with 260 yards a game. Sophomore Maxwell Smith will be the quarterback after he was locked in a tight battle with senior Morgan Newton. Neither was very good, as they combined for around 1,600 yards, 12 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. Newton was a better runner, with 272 yards and 2 touchdowns. Both will probably see action again this year. Kentucky tailback Josh Clemons will miss at least a couple of weeks after arthroscopic knee surgery last week. He is officially listed as doubtful for the Louisville game. CoSkik Williams was the leading rusher last year with 486 yards, and 3 touchdowns. He is probable with a foot injury. Receiver La’Rod King had 40 catches, 598 yards, and 7 touchdowns last year.

The Kentucky defense wasn’t bad last year, allowing 24.7 points per game. However, the loss of some key players could hurt them slightly. Defensive back Martavius Neloms, DE Collins Ukwu, and linebackers Alvin Dupree and Avery Williamson will anchor the unit.

Louisville quarterback Teddy Bridgewater was the Big East freshman of the year last year. He threw for 2,129 yards with 14 touchdowns and 12 interceptions, and he had 4 rushing touchdowns. He struggled early in the season, but hit his stride late. Dominique Brown will be the feature back. He had 140 carries, 533 yards, and 4 touchdowns. The Cardinals lost top receiver Michaelee Harris to a knee injury. Sophomores Eli Rogers and DaVante Parker are very talented receivers though.

Louisvile was #2 in the Big east in total defense and #10 nationally against the run. Safety Hakeem Smith, Corner Adrian Bushell, and linebacker Preston Brown anchor what should be a good if not great unit.

Kentucky is 13-6-1 in non-conference games, 2-7 in road games, and 1-4 in September. Louisville is 4-1 on fieldturf, 7-2 overall, 12-5 in non-conference games, 2-5 in September, and 2-6 in home games. Four of the last five played in Louisville in this series have gone under the total. The underdog is 4-1 ATS recently and the road team is 4-0.

Kentucky will struggle in the brutal SEC, while Louisville is one of the favorites in the much weaker Big East. Still, I think 14 is too many points in this game. Both teams struggled on offense last year and had good defenses. Louisville wins but it will be by a touchdown or less.

For 2012 college football picks, Maddux is the King. We are releasing key plays every day.