If you’re looking for an upset during the first round of the NFL Playoffs and you think a big spread is the way to go, then the visiting New York Jets at +9.5 in New England may be for you. But I’m no expert.
The Jets beat the Pats 17- 14 at New England in week 10 and lost to them at home in week two by a score of 24- 17. So the spread, for this reason and a few others, seems big to me. But then again…? Here are some pros (go with the Pats) and cons (go with the Jets).
CON— First and foremost—New England head coach Bill Belichik is NOT into running up point totals. He tends to do what it takes to win and that’s it.
PRO—Belichik has shown resentment towards his former assistant and the Jets’ rookie coach Eric Mangini. He may want to rub a playoff win in his former ball boy’s face.
CON—Recently, coach “B� was willing to give coach “M� some kudos, tempered though they were.
PRO—Quiet guys like Belichik can carry resentment to a whole new level.
CON—Mangini knows how his former boss thinks and calls plays.
PRO—Mangini’s former boss knows that he knows (man my head hurts) and knows how to confuse coach “M� more than this point has confused anyone who’s read it.
CON—Pats’ “D� standout Rodney Harrison is injured. Will he play? And LB Junior Seau is out. TE Ben Watson and RB Kevin Faulk may not play.
PRO—Pats’ standout pass interception guru CB Asante Samuel is healthy as is much of the rest of the defense. NT Vince Wilfork is back from injury.
CON—Pats CB Ellis Hobbs can be beaten.
PRO—Tom Brady—not brilliant this year—but he is Tom Brady. Against the Jets, he’s thrown 12 TDs and 5 INTs.
CON—Chad Pennington—although he had a much better than expected year—he’s had a tough time against the Pats, throwing 9 INTs and 7 TDs in 12 games.
PRO—New England has one of the soundest defenses around and the Jets cannot find a running game, which means a whole lot of balls in the air and very little else.
CON—Rookie kicker Gostkowski has been okay (77.6%) in his first season but has never played in a big game with the type of pressure New England fans exude. His accuracy lags far behind former Pat Vinatieri’s 89.3% and Jet kicker Nugent’s 88.9%. That makes 9.5 look like a mighty BIG advantage!
PRO—Belichik is the most prepared coach in the NFL.
FINALLY:
In the last 12 meetings between these teams, New England is 6 and 6 versus the spread. In those same games, the point totals have been under for seven, over for three and a push on two.
I’d check out Madduxsports.com (hit “HOME� above on this site) if you’re looking for more in-depth information and to purchase some reasonably priced premium playoff picks.
[tags]New York Jets, New England Patriots,Eric Mangini, Bill Belichik, NFL Playoffs [tags]
