Princeton Tigers AT Dartmouth Big Green
Mar 4, 2011 at 7 PM EST
Opening Line:  Princeton -12
Current Line: Princeton -12
Opening Total:  126.5
Current Total:  127
Opening Moneyline:  Prince -900 / Dart +650
Current Moneyline:  Prince -900 / Dart +650

Tonight’s game brings together two teams on opposite ends of the Ivy League standings.  Dartmouth (5-21) is 1-11 in Ivy league play and Princeton (22-5) is 10-1 and they lead the Ivy League and are the favorites going into the Ivy League tournament.

Princeton has won 12 of their last 13 games, with the lone loss coming to the then-ranked 21st UCF Knights.  Dartmouth has dropped their last 9 games and haven’t won a game since January 28th (a 7 point victory over Cornell).  Dartmouth has a -11.0 point differential, as they give up in excess of 70 a game (70.8) and score a tad under 60 a game (59.8).  Princeton is +6.6, scoring 69.7 a game and giving up only 63.1.

Some betting trends:

Princeton is 8-2 SU in their last 10 games on the road and they are 11-4 SU in their last 15 games on the road against Dartmouth.  The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Princeton’s last 6 games on the road against Dartmouth.

Dartmouth is 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games and they are 0-5 SU in their last 5 games.  The total has gone OVER In 5 of Dartmouth’s last 6 games and they are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 at home.  They are also 1-4 SU in their last 5 at home and 1-4 SU in their last 5 against Princeton.  The total has gone UNDER in 6 of the last 9 games against the Tigers and the Big Green are 4-11 SU in their last 15 games against Princeton.  The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dartmouth’s last 6 games at home against Princeton.

As one would expect from a team that only averages 57.6 points per game, there are no standout scorers on Dartmouth’s roster.  They have a 9 man rotation which features 5 players averaging between 6.5 points per game and 8.7 (Kirk Crecco, 6.5; Ronnie Dixon, 7.0; R.J. Griffin, 8.5; Jabari Trotter, 8.5; David Rufful, 8.7).  David Rifful is arguably the best player on Dartmouth, as he averages a team high 8.7 points per game and 5.2 rebounds per game, as well as 1.5 steals.  The sad truth, however, is that Rifful would probably not even start on most teams, Yale included.  He has scored in double figures ten times this year, and in those 10 games, Dartmouth has won 4 of them.  So it would be safe to say that Rifful is a key to Dartmouth having any chance to win.  If he could get off and have one of his better games of the year, Dartmouth could at least cover the spread.

Princeton is led by the quartet of Ian Hummer, Kareem Maddox, Dan Mavraides, and Douglas Davis.  Together, the four of them average 53 a game, which is 75% of Princeton’s total scoring output.  Hummer, a 6’7″ sophomore forward, leads the way with 14.0 points per game, 6.8 rebounds per game and over a block and over a steal per game.  He has scored in double figures in all but 5 games, and Princeton won all 5 of the games he did not, anyway.  His best game of the year came in a 2 point road loss to Presbyterian when he managed 24 points and 24 rebounds, going 10 of 13 from the floor.  Maddox, a 6’8″ senior forward, leads the team in rebounding with 7.8 boards a game and is second in scoring with 13.2 points per game.  He has accrued three double doubles so far, and Princeton has won all three of those games.  His best effort so far came in a 9 point win over Siena, when he scored 30 points and grabbed 10 rebounds.

There’s really no reason to expect this game to be very close.  Dartmouth has a decent shot at covering the spread, but will have to get big games from their big 4.