Princeton Tigers AT Yale Bulldogs
Feb 18, 2011 at 7 PM EST
Opening Line:  Princeton -3.5
Current Line:  Princeton -3
Opening Total:  128.5
Current Total: 127.5
Opening Moneyline: Prince -160 / Yale +140
Current Moneyline:  Prince -155 / Yale +135

Princeton (19-4) enters tonight’s game with a perfect Ivy League conference record of 7-0.  Extending that lead with an 8-0 record may not be as easy as fans would anticipate.  College basketball oddsmakers have set the line close, but in Princeton’s favor at an opening line of -3.5  Yale (12-10)  is a legitimate opponent, especially at home where they are 7-3 this year.  Last game they only lost by 4, and that was at Princeton.  Tonight’s game has all the makings of a close down to the wire game.

Princeton, despite being 19-4, has only a +6.8 point differential.  They are 154th in the nation in scoring with 69.9 a game and they give up only 63.1.  Yale scores 68.5 a game and gives up 67.0, for a +1.5 differential — about what one would expect from a team near .500.

Some betting trends:

Princeton is 7-1 SU in their last 8 road games and 2-4 SU in their last 6 road games against Yale.  The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Princeton’s last 6 road games at Yale.

Yale is 7-3 SU In their last 10 games and the total has gone OVER in all 5 of Yale’s last 5 games.  Yale is 4-1 SU in their last 5 at home and 2-4 ATS in their last 6 against Princeton.  Yale is 1-4 SU in their last 5 against Princeton and the total has gone OVER in 4 of the last 6 games against Princeton.  Yale is 4-2 SU in their last 6 home games against Princeton and the total has gone UNDER in 5 of the last 6 home games against Princeton.

Princeton is led by the quartet of Ian Hummer, Kareem Maddox, Dan Mavraides, and Douglas Davis.  Together, the four of them average 53 a game, which is 75% of Princeton’s total scoring output.  Hummer, a 6’7″ sophomore forward, leads the way with 14.0 points per game, 6.8 rebounds per game and over a block and over a steal per game.  He has scored in double figures in all but 5 games, and Princeton won all 5 of the games he did not, anyway.  His best game of the year came in a 2 point road loss to Presbyterian when he managed 24 points and 24 rebounds, going 10 of 13 from the floor.  Maddox, a 6’8″ senior forward, leads the team in rebounding with 7.8 boards a game and is second in scoring with 13.2 points per game.  He has accrued three double doubles so far, and Princeton has won all three of those games.  His best effort so far came in a 9 point win over Siena, when he scored 30 points and grabbed 10 rebounds.

Yale is led by big man 6’10” junior forward Greg Mangano.  Mangano puts up 16.0 points per game, grabs 9.7 rebounds per game, and blocks nearly 3 shots a game.  His interior presence gives most teams immense trouble, as few teams can find someone to matchup with Mangano’s size.  The problem for Yale is that there are not enough other players creating mismatches or playing significantly well enough for Yale to be much more than a middle of the road Ivy League ballclub.

Tonight’s game will be a close battle.  If Mangano can get going and control the paint effectively, Yale could pull the upset.