Dartmouth AT Columbia
Feb 18, 2011 at 7 PM EST
Opening Line: Columbia -12
Current Line: Columbia -11.5
Opening Total: 131.5
Current Total: 131
Opening Moneyline: Col -725 / Dar +575
Current Moneyline: Col -800 / Dar +600
Tonight’s game brings together the struggling Dartmouth Big Green (5-17) against the Columbia Lions (13-9). Dartmouth has dropped their last 5 games, by an average of 17 points per game. Those losses include Yale, Brown, Princeton, Pennsylvania, and Columbia (all conference opponents), which has rendered them with a 1-7 Ivy League record, which leaves them alone at the cellar of Ivy League standings. Columbia has a 4-4 record in the Ivy league, sure to improve to 5-4 tonight against the woeful Big Green. Columbia is currently 4th in the Ivy League conference standings.
Dartmouth hasn’t been close in most of their games and they have a double digit negative point differential of -10.5. They only score 57.6 a game, and give up 68.1. Columbia, despite being 4 games above .500, is only at a +0.5 differential, with most of their games having been closely contested. They rank 99th in the nation in scoring with 72.1 points per game.
Some betting trends:
Dartmouth is 0-5 SU in their last 5 road games and 2-5 SU in their last 7 road games against Columbia. The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dartmouth’s last 6 games on the road at Columbia.
Columbia is 10-5 SU in their last 15 games and 2-4 SU in their last 6. They are 8-2 SU in their last 10 home games and 6-3 SU in their last 9 games against Dartmouth. The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the last 5 games against the Big Green and Columbia is 5-2 SU in their last 7 home games against Dartmouth. The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Columbia’s last 6 home games against Dartmouth.
As one would expect from a team that only averages 57.6 points per game, there are no standout scorers on Dartmouth’s roster. They have a 9 man rotation which features 5 players averaging between 6.5 points per game and 8.7 (Kirk Crecco, 6.5; Ronnie Dixon, 7.0; R.J. Griffin, 8.5; Jabari Trotter, 8.5; David Rufful, 8.7). David Rifful is arguably the best player on Dartmouth, as he averages a team high 8.7 points per game and 5.2 rebounds per game, as well as 1.5 steals. The sad truth, however, is that Rifful would probably not even start on most teams, Columbia included. He has scored in double figures ten times this year, and in those 10 games, Dartmouth has won 4 of them. So it would be safe to say that Rifful is a key to Dartmouth having any chance to win. If he could get off and have one of his better games of the year, Dartmouth could at least cover the spread.
Columbia is led by the backcourt duo of Noruwa Agho and Brian Barbour. The two each play 34 minutes a game and combine for 29.1 points per game (40% of Columbia’s total output). Agho, a 6’3″ junior guard, is leading the way scoring 16.0 points per game and is dishing out 4.5 assists per game in a potent Columbia lineup. He shoots 38.4% from distance (33 of 86) and has scored in double figures in 16 of Columbia’s 22 games. He’s also had 7 games with 20 or more points and hit six threes in a win against Union College. His backcourt mate 6’1″ sophomore Brian Barbour averages 13.1 points per game, 3.1 assists per game and 1.4 steals per game. Columbia is 2-3 in the 5 games in which Barbour has failed to score in double figures and they are 11-6 when he scores in double figures.
Tonight’s game probably won’t be very close, as indicated by college basketball oddsmakers setting the line in double digits in Columbia’s favor. If Rifful could have a big game and bolster Dartmouth’s offensive output, they could cover the spread.
