Tampa Bay Rays AT Milwaukee Brewers
June 20, 2011 at 8:10 PM EST
Opening Moneyline:  MIL -145, TAM +125
Current Moneyline:  MIL -140, TAM +120
Opening Total:  9
Current Total:  9

SP:  TAM- Jeff Niemann; MIL- Chris Narveson

The Brewers are continuing to play at a level above where they were expected to be this season, and sit 7 games above .500 despite a rough road trip in which they dropped 5 of 7 games.  They were outscored 24-11 over those games and lost 2 of 3 to the Red Sox over last weekend.

Chris Narveson will take the mound for the Brewers tonight.  Narveson is 4-4 with a 4.48 ERA and has won his last 2 decisions.  On Wednesday against the Cubs he gave up 4 runs and 6 hits in 5 1/3rds innings, and felt he could put some of that blame on the rain delay.  “It was tough having to sit around for a couple of hours before the game (with a rain delay), but, mentally, I felt strong,” Narveson remarked.

Chris Narveson started last season in the pen but moved into the rotation in mid-April where he compiled a 4.99 ERA as a starter.  His fastball is only in the upper 80s, but he has a few off speed pitches that frame it and make it seem like a stronger pitch than it actually is.  His PECOTA projection calls for a 6-6 record with 119 Innings Pitched with a 4.74 ERA.

Tampa Bay is sitting 6 games above .500 and they have won 2 of the only 3 games played between these teams so far in a series that was in Tampa Bay in 2005.  In that series, Prince Fielder hit 2 doubles, in what was his major league debut.  He hasn’t faced Jeff Niemann yet in his career.

Niemann was just on the 15 day DL list and just pitched 5 1/3rds scoreless innings in a triple-A rehab stint.  “I’ve been working and doing everything I can,” Niemann said.

Niemann had a 3.12 ERA well into early August last season, but this year is over 2.5 runs higher than that at 5.74 and his record is 1-4, well worse than the 10-8 predicted by his PECOTA Projection in Baseball Prospectus.  They also predicted a 3.94 ERA.  After the shoulder problems last season he was destroyed for a 9.82 ERA in 7 starts.

Ryan Braun of the Brewers is riding a 12 game hitting streak.

Johnny Damon of the Rays could play some LF in this series.

Some betting trends:

Tampa Bay is 9-4 SU in their last 13 games and the total has gone UNDER in 6 of their last 7 games.  The Rays are 5-2 SU in their last 7 on the road.

The Milwaukee Brewers are 2-5 SU in their last 7 games and the total has gone OVER in 5 of their last 6 games.  The Brewers are 15-3 SU in their last 18 games at home.

Narveson is the better pitcher here, and that, along with the fact they are both the better team and at home, are the reasons why the Brewers are favored for this game.  Niemann hasn’t been particuarly impressive dating back to his shoulder injury of last season and may never experience the same success he did in 2009 when he went 13-6 with a 3.94 ERA.