#19 North Carolina Tar Heels at North Carolina State Wolfpack
Feb 23, 2011 at 9 PM EST
Opening Line: North Carolina -5
Current Line: North Carolina -5.5
Opening Total: 145.5
Current Total: 146
Opening Moneyline: NC -215 / NCSt +185
Current Moneyline: NC -240 / NcSt +200
The Tarheels have yet another 20 win season to add to their team’s perpetual accolades and success, but they certainly survived a tough scare to do it. After dominating Boston College for 29 minutes, the Tarheels allowed a 15 point lead to evaporate by going on a scoring drought that featured only 9 points in over 11 minutes. Freshman forward Harrison Barnes was disappointed.
“It’s very disappointing because, at this point in time, we have become a good team,” said Barnes. “We’ve got a lot of good wins underneath our belt, but we almost threw it away. We didn’t come out with the edge that we had in Boston, but there is a lot we can learn from this game and we have got to get better.”
Fortunately, they face an NC State team that they have won 9 straight against. Last matchup was January 29th, when UNC beat the Wolfpack by 20. NC State has struggled of late, having lost 5 of their last 7. They got blown out by #1 Duke (Duke was #5 at the time actually), losing by 24 in a game at Duke. This will be their first game against a ranked opponent since the Duke games.
Some betting trends:
North Carolina is 6-2 SU in their last 8 games on the road and the total has gone UNDER in 7 of their last 9 on the road. The Tarheels are 6-1 SU in their last 7 road games against NC State and the total has gone OVER in 5 of their last 6 on the road against NC State.
NC State is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games and 3-8 SU in those 11 games. NC State is 14-3 SU in their last 17 home games and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 against UNC. NC State is 1-6 SU in their last 7 at home against UNC and the total has gone OVER In 5 of the last 6 at home against the Tarheels.
NC State is led by 6’8″ senior forward Tracy Smith. Smith scores 14.6 points per game, grabs 5.8 boards per game and shoots 48.6% from the floor. He has scored in double figures in all but 2 games he has appeared in (total of 16 games). Over his last three games he is averaging 17.7 a game and he had 19 on 7 of 15 shooting in the 7 point loss to Maryland three days ago. 6’8 freshman C.J. Leslie has been making a big difference too. The freshman has averaged 11.6 points per game and leads the team in rebounding with 7.5 a game. He does this despite only averaging 24.8 minutes a game. He’s managed 5 double doubles and NC State has won 3 of those 5 games. He’s also leading the team in points per game over the last three games with 18.3 a game.
North Carolina is led by the combination of Tyler Zeller and Harrison Barnes. Zeller, a 7’0″ 250 pound junior big man, is leading the way in scoring with 14.5 points per game, while grabbing 7.3 boards per game and blocking over a shot per game. He has improved every season at North Carolina so far and figures to be drafted high if he comes out this spring. Barnes, 6’8″ freshman, has also been having a great year, averaging 13.4 points per game, 5.6 rebounds per game, on 40% shooting. The shot selection has to improve, but he’s doing very well for a freshman, not withstanding the poor shots. Barnes could go out after his freshman year into the NBA as well, and would be a lottery pick if he did.
This in state battle is always fun, and the fact that it is in NC State gives the Wolfpack an edge. Look for a close battle, as indicated by college basketball oddsmakers setting the line so close for this one.
