Cincinnati Reds (8-3) AT San Diego Padres (4-6)
April 13, 2011 at 6:35 PM EST
Opening Runline: CIN -1.5 +150, SD +1.5 -170
Current Runline: CIN -1.5 +145, SD +1.5 -165
Opening Moneyline: CIN -119, SD -101
Current Moneyline: CIN -114, SD +104
Opening Total: 7
Current Total: 7
SP: CIN- T. Wood, SD- T. Stauffer
The Reds have been rolling, largely in part due to the fact that they are leading the majors or very near the lead in every major offensive category. Their batting average appoaches .300 at .294, they have hit 14 homers, 72 runs, OBP .363, SLG .453, and .320 hitting with runners in scoring position.
The Reds went on to win an 11 inning match on Tuesday, rallying to win it 8-2. Their record over the last two seasons against San Diego hasn’t been good at 3-10, but this season there is a reason to expect different.
Drew Stubbs hasn’t been deterred by playing in a pitcher’s park. He’s hit .333 with two HRs and five RBIs in his five games played in San Diego. Tuesday, he had two hits, one of which was a 3 run homer, bringing him to 11 RBIs on the season. Stubbs’ PECOTA projections are for a much more dismal year than he having. PECOTA’s BA is .247, and he is expected to only have 62 RBIs for the entire season – he’s already 1/6th of the way there through 11 games.
Travis Wood takes the mound for the Reds. He’s 1-1 this season with a 5.25 ERA. He’s lost 6 of his last 7 starts. He had his worst outing in a while on Friday, giving up 6 runs and 7 hits in five plus innings, as the Reds went on to lose 12-3 to Arizona. His last meeting against the Padres, he allowed three runs in seven innings but did not record a decision. San Diego, however, is batting just .213 on the season so now is a good time for Wood to try to get things back on track. Wood’s PECOTA calls for a 9-8 season with a 4.16 ERA.
The Padres will have Tim Stauffer taking the mound. His 5.06 ERA is the highest of all San Diego starters. His last start on Wednesday against San Francisco, he gave up 4 runs and 8 hits in 4 2/3rds innings. The Padres lost the game 8-4. “I just didn’t feel real sharp overall,” Stauffer said. He has had success against the Reds, however, as he has a 2-0 record with a 1.65 ERA in 4 games. In the two victories, his ERA was 2.08. If he could pitch that well today, it would be a given that the Padres will win.
Some betting trends:
The total has gone OVER In 6 of Cincinnati’s last 9 games and they are 8-3 SU in their last 11 games. Cincinnati is 7-14 SU in their last 21 on the road and the total has gone OVER In 4 of their last 6 on the road. The Reds are 5-10 SU in their last 15 games against the San Diego Padres. Cincinnati is 4-2 SU in their last 6 against San Diego while they are 3-6 SU in their last 9 road games against the Padres.
San Diego is 1-5 SU in their last 6 games and they are 1-5 SU in their last 6 at home. The total has gone UNDER in 6 of the Padres’ last 9 home games and they are 10-5 SU in their last 15 games against the Reds. San Diego is 2-4 SU in their last 6 against Cincinnati and they are 6-3 SU in their last 9 at home against the Reds.
Cincinnati is hot, but Stauffer has always had success against them. The two factors may balance each other out and equate to a close game; it’s anyone’s guess really.
