Horizon League Foes Battle in Indianapolis: Green Bay at Butler

Green Bay Phoenix at Butler Bulldogs, Hinkle Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
Friday, January 21, 2011, 7:00 pm Eastern, TV: ESPNU
Opening Line: Butler -14 1/2
Current Line: Butler -14 1/2
Opening Total: 139
Current Total: 139 1/2
Money Line: Butler -1400 / Green Bay +900

Shelvin Mack and Butler take on Green Bay in a must win Horizon League game at historic Hinkle Fieldhouse. Butler is a 14 1/2 point favorite.

Every Friday night ESPNU showcases a Horizon League game because there are on of very few leagues that play on Friday night. Usually, the Horizon, MAAC, and the Ivy leagues are the only ones that play on Friday night during conference season. Anyway, instead of calling the Horizon League game of the week, ESPN might as well call the Butler and whomever they happen to be playing game of the week. Obviously, Butler is the biggest fish in the mid-major Horizon League pond. They, of course, garnered national attention with their Cinderella run to the National Championship game last season. They came up one basket short of upsetting powerhouse Duke to win the title. Though Butler isn’t nearly as strong as they were last year, they are still dangerous. Butler is in fourth place in the conference with a 13-6 overall record and 5-2 in Horizon play. They take on the Green Bay Phoenix who are 10-9 overall and 4-3 in conference. This college basketball game is obviously the biggest sporting event involving a team from Green Bay this weekend, so I hope the pressure isn’t too much for the Phoenix players. I am joking, of course, but the Green Bay Phoenix do have 9 losses on the season. The schedule has been pretty tough this season with losses to Marquette, San Diego St, IUPUI, Cleveland St, Duquesne, Buffalo, Wisconsin, Detroit and Wright St. They have wins over Miami-Ohio and Wyoming on the season. They have won 4 games in a row over lesser opponents Houston Baptist, Milwaukee, Loyola-Illinois, and Illinois-Chicago. The latter three are near the bottom of the standings in the Horizon League. Butler has losses to Louisville, Evansville, Duke, Xavier, Milwaukee, and Wright St on the year. They have wins over Stanford, Utah, Florida St, and Washington St on the season. Butler has won and covered 3 of the last 4 meetings between the teams, and 3 out of 4 have gone over as well. Butler is 9-2 ATS when playing teams with winning records this season. Butler hasn’t done well as a big home favorite the last two seasons going 2-10 ATS when favored my more than 12 1/2 at home in the last two seasons.

The Green Bay Phoenix have no significant injuries. They are led by guard Rahmon Fletcher who averages 16.7 points to lead the team, 2.3 rebounds, 2.7 assists, and 1.5 steals a game to lead the team. Guard Bryquis Perine is averaging 12.1 points, 2.8 rebounds, 3.1 assists to lead the team, and 1.1 steals a game. Center Alec Brown averages 9.1 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 2 blocks a game to lead the team. Forward Jarvis Williams leads the team in rebounds with 5.8 a game. Remarkably, the Phoenix have scored exactly as many points as their opponents. Both the Phoenix and opponents are scoring 67.9 points a game. Green Bay is shooting 43.2% from the field and 32.6% from 3-point range. Phoenix opponents are shooting 45.2% from the field. Green Bay makes 67.4% from the free throw line. The Phoenix average 35.8 rebounds, and have a rebounding margin of +3.8. They average 11.7 assists and 13.5 turnovers a game. The Phoenix foce 15 turnovers a game on defense. Green Bay averages 6.3 steals and 3.8 blocks a game.

Butler is also healthy. The Bulldogs have and RPI somewhere in the mid 20’s which might be good enough for an at-large bid for the NCAA tournament but they might have to win the conference tournament to guarantee a spot. They are in fourth place in the conference right now but they are only a game out of first. Butler is led by the dynamic duo of forward Matt Howard and guard Shelvin Mack. One of the two leads the Bulldogs in every statistical category. Howard is averaging 17.3 points, 7.6 rebounds, 1.3 assists, and 1.4 steals a game. Mack averages 14.3 points, 4.5 rebounds, 3.5 assists, and 1 steal a game. Both are shooting more than 35% from 3 point range, and over 80% from the free throw line. Butler is outscoring opponents 74-65 on the season. The Bulldogs are shooting 44.2% from the field and 36.1% from 3-point range. Bulldog opponents are shooting 42.1% from the field. Butler averages 34.9 rebounds a game and has a rebounding margin of +2.8. Butler averages 12.4 assists and 11.3 turnovers a game. They force 13.4 turnovers a game on defense. Butler averages 6.4 steals and 1.6 blocks a game.

Butler is clearly the superior team here though they are coming off a 69-64 loss at Wright St last Sunday. As mentioned Butler struggles as a big home favorite. this is because Butler is like Gonzaga, in that they have become a player on the national stage and teams that play them get up for them more than they do for other teams in the conference. Butler has a huge target on them in every league game they play, but they wouldn’t want it any other way. butler should roll in spite of this.