San Antonio Spurs AT Utah Jazz
Jan 26, 2011 at 9:30 PM EST
Opening Line: San Antonio -2.5
Current Line: San Antonio -4
Opening Total: 198.5
Current Total: 196.5
Opening Moneyline: SA -160 / Uta +140
Current Moneyline: SA -165 / Uta +140
Things have been rough for Utah lately. They are coming off a winless 5 game road trip, and things won’t get any easier tonight as they face the Western Conference leading San Antonio Spurs. Duncan should be returning from injury and San Antonio is playing excellent both at home and on the road where they are 14-5. They’ve won 9 of their last 10 games and are an outstanding 5.5 games ahead of the second place Lakers for the Conference lead.
Utah is coming off a pathetic loss to the Lakers on Tuesday, a game which they lost by 29 points. Deron Williams is unhappy with the way the Jazz have played on offense, citing a lack of chemistry as a main downfall. “We’ve lacked chemistry and continuity on offense and on defense and we’re not trusting each other,” said Williams. “We couldn’t execute and we couldn’t get stops against teams with the worst records in the NBA, and coming in to play one of the better teams in the league, it got ugly.”
The Jazz are averaging only 91.6 points over their five game losing streak, 8.3 points below their season average, and while San Antonio does play a fast paced game, they still do play good defense, so while the Jazz may score more than 91 tonight, they will need to increase their efficiency to win the game.
Some betting trends:
San Antonio is 9-1 SU in their last 10 games and the total has gone UNDER in 9 of their last 10 games. The total has gone UNDER in 4 of their last 5 road games and they are 4-1 SU in their last 5 on the road. The total has gone OVER in 7 of the last 9 against the Jazz and they are 1-4 SU in their last 5 against Utah. They are also 1-4 ATS in those 5 games and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games against the Jazz. They are 3-7 SU in their last 10 games on the road in Utah.
Utah is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games and the total has gone OVER in 6 of their last 7 games. They are 0-5 SU in their last 5 and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games. The total has gone OVER in 4 of their last 5 at home and they are 4-1 SU in their last 5 at home. The total has gone OVER in 7 of their last 9 against the Sprus and they are 4-1 SU in their last 5 against San Antonio. The Jazz are 7-3 SU in their last 10 home games against the Spurs.
Key Matchups:
Tony Parker & George Hill vs. Deron Williams
Williams is having the best year of his 6 year NBA career this year, posting a career high 21.6 points per game on 46% shooting from the floor. His assists are down a little bit from last year (10.5 last year to 9.4) this year, but the scoring more than makes up for a one assist decrease. He’s scored in double figures in every Jazz game so far except one (he had 5 points in a blowout loss to Boston) and had 17 points and 8 assists last game in the embarassing loss to the Lakers that I mentioned earlier. Tony Parker and George Hill are both undersized to cover the 6’3″ Williams and will have trouble keeping him from overpowering them on drives to the basket or backdown post up opportunities. While Parker and Hill are significantly quicker than Deron Williams, he finds a way to stick with most guards and keep them in front of them, so that speed advantage probably won’t factor in much for the San Antonio guards.
Tim Duncan vs. Paul Millsap
Millsap is finally starting after playing a 6th man-like role for the first 4 years of his career, and he has made the most of it. He’s averaging 16.9 points per game and 7.8 boards while shooting a stellar 53.3% from the floor. Duncan is still a good defender, though, and should be able to keep Millsap away from the basket, forcing him to shoot jumpers (not that it will be much of a consolation, Millsap is a great mid range shooter). Duncan has fallen off after maintaining a high level of play for 13 seasons and is now in the twilight years of his career, but he still outrebounds Millsap and is having his first season with over 2 blocks since 07-08, mainly due to the poor Spurs perimeter defense causing him to have to protect the rim more. If Millsap can get cookin’ against Duncan, it could spell trouble for the Spurs. Duncan held him in check last game, holding him to 12 points and 7 boards, as he went 5 of 11 from the floor. For the Spurs to win, it will be required that Duncan have a good defensive game, as well as Dejuan Blair who will be covering Utah’s other good big man, Al Jefferson.
