San Francisco Giants (27-22) AT Milwaukee Brewers (27-23)
May 27, 2011 at 8:10 PM EST
Opening Moneyline: MIL -120, SF +100
Current Moneyline:  MIL -123, SF +112
Opening Total:  6.5
Current Total: 6.5

SP:  SF- Tim Lincecum; MIL- Shaun Marcum

The first thing you notice when you look at the line for this game is that the total is set below 7.  There’s a good reason for that:  This game promises to be a pitcher’s duel with both pitchers having ERAs in the low 2.00s.

Another factor to consider in this game is that the Brewers have the best home record (19-6) in the major leagues.  Tim Lincecum certainly has enough tricks in the bag to reverse the Brewers’ fortunes, though.  While Lincecum’s record is not that impressive at 4-4, his ERA is just barely over two at 2.06.  He is coming off pitching a three hitter in a shut out victory over the A’s on Saturday.  In that game, he threw an incredible 133 pitches, the second highest of his career, but also feels he’s been prepared to throw games like that.

“I think it just goes back to having good rhythm throughout the game. Not expending yourself too much to allow yourself, if you get into a jam, to take it to another level,”  Lincecum said after the game.

While Lincecum is 60-31 on his career, he hasn’t been so great against the Brewers, a team in which he is 2-3 against with a very un-Lincecum ERA of 4.62.  However, he has been hot this month and has a 0.91 ERA over the four starts in May.

Prince Fielder realizes that even though the Brewers are hot, they are facing just the pitcher to shut them down.  “It’s going to be a big challenge”  Fielder said.  “They’re a great team, but we’ve been playing good. Hopefully we can come out on top.”

For as good as Lincecum has been, the Brewers are sending a pretty darn good one to the mound as well.  Shaun Marcum is 6-1 with a 2.37 ERA and hasn’t lost since his season debut.  He threw a quality start against the Rockies on Saturday, giving up only 2 runs in eight innings, while fanning 8 batters.  He’s only started once in his career against the Giants, a game in which he gave up 2 runs and 5 walks in 5 innings, as a member of the Blue Jays.

Last year’s NL rookie of the year Buster Posey is likely out for the season after he broke his leg in a home plate collison in Wednesday night’s loss to the Marlins.  It’s a big blow to the Giants.  Eli Whiteside replaced Posey in the lineup and did not record a hit.  He doesn’t expect to replace Posey’s production, but will need to step up for the Giants to remain competitive.

“That’s our cleanup hitter and one of the best hitters in baseball. I’ll do my best and play my game, but I’m not going to try to be Buster Posey,” Whiteside said.

Some betting trends:

The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Francisco’s last 7 games and the Giants are 12-6 SU in their last 18 games.  The total has also gone UNDER in 8 of the Giants’ last 11 games against the Milwaukee Brewers.  The Giants are 8-3 SU in their last 11 against Milwaukee and the total has gone UNDER in 6 of the Giants’ last 8 games on the road in Milwaukee.  The Giants are 7-1 SU in their last 8 road games against the Brewers.

The total has gone OVER in 4 of Milwaukee’s last 6 games and they are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games.  The total has gone OVER In 6 of Milwaukee’s last 8 games at home and the Brewers are 5-0 SU in their last 5 at home.  The total has gone UNDER in 8 of the last 11 against the Giants while the Brewers are 3-8 SU in their last 11 against San Francisco.  The Brewers are 1-7 SU in their last 8 games against the Giants at home and the total has gone UNDER in 6 of the Brewers’ last 8 games at home against the Giants.

As I said in the onset, this is going to be a pitchers’ duel.  With both pitchers having ERAs in the low 2s, an ‘under’ seems to make sense given the 6.5 total.  The Brewers have been hot, though, and they are at home, making a moneyline bet on the Brewers an even safer proposition.