The New Year certainly saw the face of college basketball change quickly and fairly drastically.

The AP top-10 in week seven looked like this:

1. North Carolina (12- 1)

2. Connecticut (11- 0)

3. Pittsburgh (12- 0)

4. Oklahoma (12- 0)

5. Duke (10- 1)

6. Wake Forest (11- 0)

7. Notre Dame (9- 2)

8. Texas (10- 2)

9. Purdue (11- 2)

10. Michigan State (9- 2)

The AP top-10 this week, week eight, looks like this:

1. Pittsburgh (14- 0)

2. Duke (12- 1)

2. North Carolina (13- 1)

4. Wake Forest (13- 0)

5. Connecticut (12- 1)

6. Oklahoma (13- 1)

7. Texas (11- 2)

8. Michigan State (11- 2)

9. Georgetown (10- 2)

10. UCLA (12- 2)

Here are a few things to consider:

Who is # 1?

Good question. The problem with being number one in college basketball is that you’re expected to be as close to perfect as is possible. The #1 North Carolina Tar Heels did the unthinkable this past week—they lost to the unranked Boston College Eagles 78- 85. That happened in the ACC opener. The result—the Heels are now ranked third, BC is 17th and the Pittsburgh Panthers, who beat the Georgetown Hoyas this past week 70- 54, moved from third to first.

One false move and you’re out of first. It makes sense, but remember that the rankings this early in the season are less dependable than those later in the year, since most top teams are untested in early non-conference play.  When they get to week eight of the season, which is when they start playing their conference schedules, the top clubs can be fairly vulnerable.

How Many Top-25 Teams Can One Conference Have?

There are 16 teams in the Big East and 12 in the Atlantic Coast Conference and together they have 14 of the nations Top-25 teams. The Big East has nine and the ACC contains five.  The other four major conferences—Big Ten, Big 12, SEC and Pac-10—contain nine of the Top-25.  The real question isn’t “how many Top-25 teams can one conference have?”

The real question is– “Is it realistic that 56% of the clubs in the Big East and 42% of those in the ACC comprise 56% of the best-of-the-best in the nation?” The 45 other teams in the remaining four leagues offer 36% of the countries best, leaving 8% to come from the lesser-known conferences. Presently the SEC has one ranked team— the Tennessee Volunteers.

Look for this mix to change but don’t expect it to be altered drastically. The ACC and Big East will most likely see three or four teams get dumped out of the national rankings. West Virginia (#25) and Notre Dame (#13) both look vulnerable in the Big East. Villanova (#18) could also be in for a dicey time. In the ACC, I think the Boston College Eagles (#17) are vulnerable.  Look for the SEC, Pac- 10 and Big 12 to pick up a team or two in the national rankings. Although I expect that the Big 12’s Purdue could lose its national rating. Of course, one of the minor conferences stands to possibly get an additional club in the Top-25.

What Will the Regular-Season Record of the Top Team Be?

When all is said and done record alone won’t determine who sports writers and coaches pick as the best team in the country at the end of the regular season. And in the post-season, of course, the NCAA Tournament determines the top team. But what record will be good enough to be number one? In a 32-game season, a mark of 29- 3 should do it, while a 28-4 grade, which is more likely, would be acceptable. 

Who might make that mark?  A few of the more likely candidates include Pittsburgh, North Carolina, Wake Forest, Clemson, Duke, Connecticut, Oklahoma, Arkansas and Syracuse. Chances are, the difference between number one at the end of the season and numbers two and three won’t be based solely on their records (they’ll probably all have the same record).  It will depend upon who that number one team beat. It helps if they were nationally ranked just prior to getting beaten. It will also depend upon how many points the number one club won by and if the vanquished club had prior victories over other Top-25 teams.

Look for NCAA Basketball’s tides to shift and have fun trying to psyche-out who the top-rated team will be prior to going into the melee known as March Madness. March Madness? That’s a whole other cup of java.