The third chapter of the truly captivating Stephen Strasburg story will be written on Friday when he starts at home against Jake Peavy and the Chicago White Sox. Strasburg entered the league as perhaps the most hyped pitcher ever to debt thanks to the age of the internet. He’s also one of the rare prospects who has not only lived up to the dizzying expectations, but has probably exceeded them. His first start was a masterpiece like many starters in the league will never throw. The second wasn’t quite as smooth, but it was still very impressive and well above average.
Right now the media is in a feeding frenzy over Strasburg. Bettors are certainly paying attention to him as well. The odds for his debut opened high and shot up much higher by first pitch. The odds for the second game actually fell slightly between when they were released and game time, but that’s only because they were set sky high to begin with. Right now a lot of sharp bettors are taking a wait and see approach to Strasburg. Sooner or later, though – and probably sooner – there is going to be some serious value in betting against him. The more immediate success he has, the more the odds will be pumped up by the public, and the more difficult it will be for even some one as talented as he is to live up to the expectations set by those odds. The trick is to figure out when that value appears. You don’t want to bet too soon, but if you wait to long then you’ll miss out on all the fun. Here are four thoughts to consider when you are trying to determine when that value might start to appear:
Inning count – There are all sorts of examples of young pitchers getting too much work and suffering badly as a result. Strasburg is most commonly compared to a young Mark Pryor, and that’s exactly what was the downfall of him. Strasburg is being very carefully managed, and the Nationals aren’t going to be in a playoff hunt so I don’t think they’ll have any problem icing Strasburg in late August if that’s what’s needed. Regardless of how delicately he is managed, though, he’s going to get into some unfamiliar territory. last year at San Diego State he pitched 109 innings in 15 starts for San Diego State. It’s only mid-June, but he has already thrown 56 innings in the majors, and 13 more in the majors (I rounded up in both cases because partial innings still require him to exert effort). That means he’s only 40 innings away from his career high. Averaging better than six innings per outing means that he’ll pass his total from last year about seven starts from now – somewhere near the end of July. When you add in the strain of spring training and the intensity of the experience he has gone through this year you have a guy who will quickly enter into uncharted territory. The higher his inning count gets the harder it is to assume that we’ll we’ll get from him is what we have gotten from him.
The schedule – The schedule makers really couldn’t have set things up better for Strasburg. The first game was against Pittsburgh – an incredibly, almost historically impotent offense. Cleveland,the second opponent, is better than Pittsburgh, but not by very much. The White Sox represent the best challenge he has faced, but they are still a sub-.500 team that isn’t dominant on the road and doesn’t score at an elite level. His next start will likely be against Kansas City, another bad team. It won’t be until his fifth start – against Atlanta – that Strasburg will face an elite team with a top level offense. I’m not trying to take anything away from what Strasburg has done, but when considering it you need to compensate for the opposition.
Second time around – Strasburg has amazingly dirty stuff. His curve ball moves about 20 feet laterally, his fastball can top 100 mph, and his changeup is almost undetectable. His slider is nasty, too. He has incredible stuff, and it’s unlike pretty much anyone in the league. Batters aren’t going to know what to expect the first time they see it, and you can’t blame them for being intimidated or caught off guard. The more he is seen, though, the better guys will get at judging him. The second time he faces a team, then, is going to be very interesting. That’s not to say that he’s doomed to struggle. Roy Halladay has nasty stuff, and guys haven’t figured it out in a decade. He’ll just have to be judged differently once the novelty factor is no longer a factor. The first time he could potential face a second date is against Atlanta in late July.
Gravity – No one can reasonably expect Strasburg to go 15-0 as a rookie. Sooner or later he’s going to lose a game. He may even lose one when he pitches well because he doesn’t exactly play for the world’s greatest team. The more Strasburg wins, the more ridiculous and inflated expectations will be, and the more glowing the terms he is described in in the media will be. Every time he wins, then, the odds are going to get more inflated, and the opponents are, all other things being equal, going to be more attractive.
