Dallas Mavericks AT Los Angeles Clippers
Mar 30, 2011 at 10:30 PM EST
Opening Line:  Dallas -4.5
Current Line:  Dallas -5
Opening Total:  199
Current Total:  199
Opening Moneyline:  Dal -240 / LAC +200
Current Moneyline:  Dal -220 / LAC +185

Dallas, over the course of this season and last, has absolutely dominated the Clippers.  They’ll be looking for their ninth straight victory over the Clippers and to pull themselves to 3-0 this season against “L.A.’s ‘other team'”

Blake Griffin is averaging 19 and 10 against the Mavericks, both a good bit below his season averages of 22.4 points per game and 12.0 rebounds per game.  While it is difficult to pinpoint Dirk Nowitzki as the reason for Griffin’s “struggles” (containment may be the best word), it is much easier to say that the Dallas team defense has kept Griffin from getting into his groove.  Last matchup he shot 16 attempts from the field, right on his season average, and if Dallas can prevent him from getting 20+ shots up a game, it dramatically increases their chances of victory.

Working in the Clippers favor tonight is that they have won 14 of their last 18 at home, but haven’t been at home since Saturday, when they closed out the game with a 20-8 run against Toronto to win by 4.

“We just switched up our defense and got stops, then went out in transition,” said Blake Griffin, averaging 25.7 points in his last three games.

Some betting trends:

The total has gone UNDER in all 5 of Dallas’ last 5 games and they are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games.  Dallas is 14-3 SU in their last 17 on the road and the total has gone UNDER in 18 of their last 25 games against the Los Angeles Clippers.  Dallas is 5-0 SU in their last 5 games against LAC and the total has gone UNDER in 11 of their last 14 games in L.A.  Dallas is 6-1 SU in their last 7 road games against the Clipppers.

The Los Angeles Clippers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games and they are also 0-5 ATS in their last 5 at home.  The total has gone UNDER in 5 of their last 7 at home and the Clippers are 14-4 SU in their last 18 at home.  They are also 0-5 SU in their last 5 against Dallas while the Clippers are 1-3-1 ATS in those games.  The total has gone UNDER in 18 of the last 25 matchups against Dallas and the total has also gone UNDER in 11 of the CLippers’ last 14 home games against the Mavericks.  The Clippers are 1-6 SU in their last 7 home games against Dallas and they are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 at home against the Mavericks.

Key Matchups:

Dirk Nowitzki vs. Blake Griffin

As mentioned earlier, the Mavericks have found a way to keep Blake Griffin in check this year.  Could that be an anomally?  Is it possible that Griffin comes out tonight and reverse that fortune to score 30 against a Dallas team that gives up 95.8 points per game?  I believe it could be that type of night.  Griffin has scored his season average of 22 in both of the last two games, but seems due for a big game since his last 30+ point game was in a triple double effort against the Washington Wizards.  He’s much more athletic than Dirk and should be able to just flat out dunk on all the Mavericks interior defenders, the problem will probably be that Griffin will end up making a lot of trips to the free throw line where he is only a 64% shooter.

Rodrique Beaubois & Jason Terry vs. Eric Gordon & Randy Foye

Both teams rely heavily on their shooting guards to provide them with scoring and all four of these guys are capable of lighting it up.  Gordon is obviously the best of the four and emerged as a legitimate star following the USA basketball stint last summer.  Foye has been a pleasant surprise for the Clippers this year after more or less floundering in obscurity in his first few seasons in the league.   Terry turns 34 this year, but really hasn’t slowed down at all.  He’s still playing 31 minutes a game and his scoring average is about the same as last year, just over 16 a game.  He’s also averaging more assists than he has since 2006-2007.  Beaubois has drawn high praise from both Jason Kidd and Jason Terry and looks to be a part of the Mavericks’ long term plans.  Though he plays only 18 minutes a night, Rodrique Beaubois averages just under 10 a game as he gets up a shot every 2.11 minutes.

Tonight’s game should be very entertaining.  A speculative money line bet on the Clippers could prove to be rewarding given the fact that the Clippers are red hot at home and Eric Gordon is back and in form.