Minnesota Golden Gophers at Penn St Nittany Lions, Bryce Jordan Center, University Park, PA
Thursday, February 17, 2011, 7:00 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN2
Opening Line: Penn St -2
Current Line: Penn St -2 1/2
Opening Total: 129 1/2
Current Line: 126 1/2
Money Line: PSU -140 / Minnesota +120
These two teams are in the middle of the pack in the Big Ten. Both Minnesota and Penn St are 6-7 in conference, tied with Michigan St 6 games back of Ohio St. Minnesota is 17-8 overall and Penn St is 13-11. Minnesota has a better shot at getting an at-large bid for next month’s NCAA tournament, though a recent 4 game losing streak has damaged those chances considerably. Minnesota won at Iowa Saturday 62-45 to snap the losing streak. The Gophers also have wins over North Carolina, West Virginia, Indiana, Purdue, Michigan, Iowa twice, and Northwestern. They have losses to Virginia, Wisconsin, Michigan St, Ohio St twice, Purdue, Indiana, and Illinois. The Gophers have been streaky this season. They started off 11-1, then lost 3 of 4 to open conference play, then won 4 in a row, then went on the 4 game losing streak. Penn St snapped a 3 game losing streak of their own with a 65-41 pasting of Northwestern Sunday. Penn St has no quality non-conference wins, but has conference wins over Indiana, Michigan St, Illinois, Iowa, and Wisconsin, in addition to the win over Northwestern. Penn St has losses to Ole Miss, Maryland, Virginia Tech, Maine, Michigan twice, Purdue twice, Ohio St, Illinois, and Michigan St.
Minnesota leads the overall series 27-8 and have won the last 3 and 11 of the last 12 meetings. Penn St is 3-2 against the spread in the last 5 games, and 4 of those 5 have gone over the total. The Gophers are 9-19 ATS on the road the last 3 seasons.
Minnesota guard Al Nolan is out until at least the Big Ten tournament (and maybe the season) with a broken foot. Nolan averages 8.4 points, 3.6 rebounds, 3.7 assists, and leads the team in steals with 2.4 a game. It is no coincidence that the Gophers went on their losing streak the game after Nolan went down with the injury. Three Gophers average double figure scoring. Guard Devoe Joseph left the team and transferred to Oregon. He was averaging 11.3 points, 3.5 assists, and 2.3 rebounds a game, but he only played in 8 games for the Gophers. Guard Blake Hoffarber averages 13.9 points to lead the team, 3.4 rebounds, 3.8 assists to lead the team, and 1.1 steal a game to lead the team in Nolan’s absence. Forward Trevor Mbakwe is averaging 13.6 points, 10.4 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 1 steal and 1.6 blocks a game. He leads the team in rebounds. Junior forward/center Ralph Sampson III averages 10.7 points, 5.6 rebounds, 1.6 assists, and leads the team in blocks with 2.1 a game. Minnesota is outscoring opponents 71-67 on the season. The Gophers are shooting 46.1% from the field and 32.5% from 3-point range. Minnesota is holding opponents to 39.5% shooting from the field. Minnesota makes 65.3% from the free throw line. Minnesota pulls down 39 rebounds a game and has a rebounding margin of +5.4. The Gophers average 15.8 assists and 13.8 turnovers a game. They force 12.3 turnovers a game on defense. Minnesota averages 7.2 steals and 5.8 blocks a game.
Penn St reserve guard Taran Buie has missed the last 12 games due to a suspension. He is not expected to play in this game either. He only plays 15 minutes a game and averages 5.8 points a game. The Nittany Lions are led by guard Talor Battle, but he is listed as probable with an ankle injury. He hasn’t missed any time and played 33 minutes Sunday and scored 19 points against Northwestern. He is averaging 20.4 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 3.2 assists a game. He leads the team in scoring and assists, and is second in the conference in scoring. Forward Jeff Brooks averages 13.6 points, 7 rebounds to lead the team, 1.8 assists, and 1.7 blocks a game to lead the team. Forward David Jackson averages 10.4 points and 4.7 rebounds a game. Tim Frazier leads the team in steals with 1.1 a game. Penn St is outscoring opponents 64-63 on the season. The Lions are shooting 43.2% from the field and 31.9% from 3-point range. PSU opponents are shooting 43.6% from the field. Penn St shoots 72.7% from the free throw line. Penn St averages 32.5 rebounds a game and has a rebounding margin of +2. Penn St averages 12.4 assists and 10.9 turnovers a game. Penn St forces 11.3 turnovers a game on defense. They average 4.6 steals and 2.7 blocks a game.
These two teams appear headed to the NIT, but either could win the Big Ten tournament. It isn’t very likely though. Minnesota isn’t the same team without Nolan. If he comes back before the end of the season, they will be a much better team. These two teams are so inconsistent, you honestly don’t know which team will show up. I do expect a close game.
Our college basketball handicappers are red hot in 2011. Don’t miss out on any more winners from now until the end of the season.
