2012 GoDaddy.com Bowl
Ladd Peebles Stadium – Mobile, Alabama
Arkansas St Red Wolves vs Northern Illinois Huskies
Sunday, January 8, 2012, 9:00 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN
Opening Line: Arkansas St -1
Current Line: Arkansas St -1 1/2
Opening Total: 62
Current Total: 65
Opening Money Line: ASU -125 / NIU +105
Current Money Line: ASU -120 / NIU +100

The 10-2 Arkansas St Red Wolves, champions of the Sun Belt Conference, and the 10-3 Northern Illinois Huskies, champions of the MAC, are two of the hottest teams in college football this side of #1 LSU. The Red Wolves and Huskies will meet up in the GoDaddy.com Bowl Sunday night in the last bowl before Monday’s BCS Championship game. Arkansas St has won 9 straight games, and Northern Illinois has won 8 straight games. This is also one of only four bowl games to feature a match-up between two conference champions, along with the Poinsettia, Rose, and Orange Bowls. Northern Illinois leads the series 6-1 against Arkansas St, but the schools haven’t played since 1996. The schools were conference rivals in the now defunct Big West for 3 seasons in the mid 90’s.

Arkansas St coach Hugh Freeze left to take the head coaching job at Ole Miss. He was replaced by Auburn offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn for next season. Running backs coach David Gunn will be the interim coach for the bowl game. The only two losses for ASU came at Illinois and Virginia Tech early in the season. The Wolves have wins over Memphis, Western Kentucky, Florida International, and Louisiana-Lafayette this season. ASU ran the table in the Sun Belt going 8-0. This is the 9th bowl appearance for Arkansas St, but the first since the 2005 New Orleans Bowl. The Red Wolves are 4-4 all-time in bowl games, but 7 of those were lower division bowl games.

Northern Illinois is coached by Dave Doeren, in his first year with the Huskies. NIU has losses at Kansas, against Wisconsin in Chicago, and at Central Michigan to open conference play. That was the only conference loss for the Huskies. NIU has wins over Army, Western Michigan, Toledo, Ball St, and Ohio in the MAC Championship game in Detroit. The Huskies are 3-3 in FBS bowls and 4-7 overall in bowls. NIU is playing in a bowl for the sixth time in 7 years, including 4 in a row. Last season, the Huskies crushed Fresno St 40-17 in the Humanitarian Bowl in Boise.

Arkansas St is averaging 453.8 total yards a game including 287.8 passing yards and 165.9 rushing yards. ASU is in the top 25 nationally in total offense, scoring offense, and passing yards.  The Wolves are scoring 33.5 points a game. ASU has 22 turnovers and has allowed 24 sacks this season. Arkansas St is 95/204 on third and fourth down conversions, and 50/61 scoring in the red zone with 35 touchdowns. The Wolves are allowing 325.7 yards a game including 218.4 passing yards and 107.2 rushing yards. ASU is allowing 19.3 points a game. ASU is in the top 20 nationally in all categories except pass defense. The Red Wolves have forced 28 turnovers and 32 sacks this season. ASU opponents are 80/215 on third and fourth down conversions, and 26/34 scoring in the red zone with 16 touchdowns. Penalties have been a problem for the Red Wolves as they average 7 a game for 61 yards. Arkansas St has 4 touchdowns on defense and special teams this season.

ASU quarterback Ryan Aplin is 274/418 passing (65.6% completions) for 3,235 yards, 18 touchdowns and 13 interceptions, along with 151 carries, 605 yards, and 9 touchdown. Aplin even caught a touchdown pass.  Running back Derek Lawson has 111 carries, 459 yards, and 3 touchdowns, plus a touchdown catch. Frankie Jackson has 85 carries, 343 yards, and 6 touchdowns along with 13 catches for 178 yards. Jermaine Robertson has 50 carries, 194 yards, and 3 touchdowns. Receiver Dwayne  Frampton has 90 catches, 1,125 yards, and 6 touchdown catches. He also has a touchdown run and a touchdown pass this season and also returns kicks and punts for Arkansas St. Josh Jarboe has 52 catches, 707 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Taylor Stockemer has 37 catches, 571 yards and 6 touchdowns. Receiver Don Jones has 2 punt returns for touchdowns. Kicker Brian Davis is 42/45 on extra points, and 16/21 on field goals with a long of 47 yards. Bobby Zalud mostly handles kickoffs, but he is 6/11 on long field goals with a long of 56 yards. All of his attempts are over 40 yards.

Northern Illinois averages 481.7 yards a game including 247.5 rushing yards, and 234.2 passing yards. The Huskies are #10 in total offense and #9 in rushing yards per game. NIU is thirteenth in scoring offense averaging 38.3 points per game.  The Huskies have 19 turnovers and have allowed only 9 sacks this season. Northern Illinois is 93/190 on third and fourth down conversions and 57/64 scoring in the red zone with 41 touchdowns. The Huskies give up 418.1 yards a game including 239.8 passing yards, and 178.2 rushing yards a game. NIU allows 31.1 points  a game. The Huskies have forced 17 turnovers and 23 sacks. NIU opponents are 96/228 on third and fourth down conversions and 51/57 scoring in the red zone with 38 touchdowns. The Huskies have 4 defensive/special teams touchdowns this season.

NIU quarterback Chandler Harnish is the leading passer and rusher for Northern Illinois. He is 219/348 passing (62.9% completion) for 2,942 with 26 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. Harnish has 185 carries for 1,382 yards, and 11 touchdowns. Back-up Jordan Lynch has a touchdown pass in 16 attempts and has 2 rushing touchdowns. Running back Jasmin Hopkins has 178 carries, 932 yards, and 15 touchdowns, plus 10 catches and a touchdown reception. Akeem Daniels has 54 carries for 292 yards, with 3 touchdowns, plus 14 catches, 251 yards and 2 touchdowns. Tommylee Lewis has a rushing touchdown and 2 kickoff returns for touchd0wns. Receiver Nathan Palmer has 46 catches, 683 yards, and 7 touchdowns. Martel Moore has 40 catches, 528 yards, and 6 touchdowns. Perez Ashford has 39 catches, 450 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Da’Ron Brown has 23 catches, 317 yards and 2 touchdowns. Clark has 18 catches, 292 yards and 4 touchdowns. Kicker Mathew Sims is 59/61 on extra points and 19/24 on field goals with a long of 44 yards. The Huskies have 5 defensive players listed as doubtful or out for this game.

Northern Illinois is 5-8 against the spread and the total is 7-6 this season. Arkansas St is 10-2 ATS and the total is 4-8 this season. The Red Wolves are 7-0 ATS after allowing 20 points or less, 6-1 as a favorite, after a straight up win, overall, 4-1 after a cover, and in non-conference games, 6-2 on turf, 2-7 after scoring 40 points or more, and 1-5 as a favorite of 3 points or less. The Huskies are 3-7 ATS after a straight up win, 2-5 after failing to cover, 5-14 against teams with winning records, and 1-8 in neutral site games, including 0-5 as a neutral site underdog.

Both Arkansas St and Northern Illinois have explosive offenses. The main difference is ASU has a dominant defense as well, and Northern Illinois is one of the worst defensive teams in the country. That will prove to be the difference and Arkansas St should win rather easily.

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